Exposing the Iran farce
By Jennifer Rubin
March 18, 2014

The Geneva talks between the P5+1 group of countries – the United States, Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany – and Iran are already heading downhill from the perspective of the West. The sanctions-relaxation part of the interim deal is helping to revive Iran’s economy, diminishing the incentive for Iran to give up its nuclear ambitions. Mike Makovsky, chief executive of the pro-Israel group JINSA, tells Right Turn: “The international sanctions regime is eroding, and with it crucial leverage of the United States and its P5+1 partners. Iran could earn $12 billion alone or more in oil exports revenue from the November initial agreement through July, when the deal expires, versus if sanctions were still in place.”

Mark Dubowitz of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who helped construct the sanctions architecture, sees problems with the administration’s rhetoric as well. “The White House shouldn’t be concerned with ‘confidence-building measures’ with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei; it should be playing on his long-standing insecurity about American power,” he says. He explains, “While sanctions were never going to stop the nuclear program in isolation, serious, specific presidential bellicosity married to massively enhanced sanctions might still have a chance.”

The administration acts as if there is no harm in useless talks, but, of course, this is silly. Not only does Iran’s economy rebound, but it also continues to make progress on advanced enrichment technology, “low-level” enrichment (which can quickly be upgraded) and its ballistic weapons program. Nothing has been turned off that can’t be turned on, Makovsky reminds us: “Iran’s overall breakout timing remains fundamentally unchanged, due to increased efficiency of centrifuges and growth of the 5 percent enriched uranium stockpile, as permitted in the deal.”

Any real action in the form of sanctions legislation has been nixed by Senate Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) – and Iran is unlikely to be impressed by a strongly worded letter, no matter how many members sign on. So long as Reid and his fellow Democrats play defense for the White House, the good cop-bad cop routine flounders.

The odds of getting a deal that remotely accomplishes what the administration has laid out are next to nothing. Congress can try, I suppose, to break the Reid-White House blockade on sanctions legislation, but the real test may not come until July. At the very least, Makovsky advises that “the deal should not be renewed in July and instead we should amp up pressure on Iran through tougher sanctions and a true credible threat of military action. It’s the only chance for an acceptable deal that prevents a nuclear capable Iran.”

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