That single Trump administration decision sets in motion a geopolitical cluster. There’s confusion and jealousy among Gulf states; questions of burden-sharing among NATO allies amid Trump’s push for them to spend more money; and a political meltdown in Israel, among other drama.

…

“This deal with Qatar basically shows that checkbook diplomacy can be more successful than doing the actual burden-sharing that we officially ask — and even demand — of our allies,” Jonathan Ruhe at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America told Axios.

“We’re putting our necks on the line much more than Qatar is.”…

Read the full piece in Axios.

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The eager anticipation of peace with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has been deflated by demands that Israel also support the Palestinian Authority. After decades of Palestinian intransigence, the sudden fixation on the PA as the lynchpin of peace makes no sense and contradicts the very spirit and success of the Abraham Accords.

There are three parties to the potential peace: Israel, KSA, and the US. Nevertheless, the Biden Administration, in its attempt to placate the significant parts of the Democratic Party who sympathize with the Palestinian cause and in exchange for ignoring the Khashoggi murder, made strengthening the PA a national imperative. It was joined by senior members of the Israeli defense establishment and security cabinet – including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself – who have made the continued existence of the PA an integral part of the Israeli national defense doctrine.

With the US and Israel seeking to build the PA, what choice does KSA have? As leaders of the Muslim world and guardians of the holy mosques, they must support the oppressed Muslim community of Palestinians. In my trips throughout the region, I have shown many of the most senior Gulf leaders, especially in KSA, the ghoulish PA’s pay-for-slay legal and budgetary infrastructure – under which they pay salaries to terrorists who murder Israelis – and they were appalled. One senior Saudi official shed bona fide tears: they abhor Muslim gratuitous violence.

Even on the “Palestinian street,” polls show that Palestinians prefer Hamas over the PA. When the UAE sent COVID-19 PPE (personal protective equipment) to help, the PA rejected the planeload because it landed first at Ben-Gurion. When the Trump administration promised $50 billion for the Palestinian people at the Bahrain conference, the PA actively sought to prevent attendance.

The Palestinian Authority’s deliberate acts against their own

Despite being the largest per capita aid recipients in the world, the PA has not just failed its people, but has purposely kept them in refugee camps, dependent upon government jobs and handouts, while enriching PA officials. Not to mention seeking to further Palestinian terror through pay-for-slay and jobs for terrorists.

The man who needs to stand strong here against this drive to promote a corrupt regime is Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister. He would do well to remember his late father Benzion Netanyahu’s speech at the 1984 Jonathan Institute organized by Bibi himself, in memory of his heroic brother, “Yoni,” the Israeli commando who fell rescuing hostages in the courageous operation in Entebbe: “…. we see leaders in the West, and many in the press and others bend toward the terrorists, [this] stem[s] in part from [a] lack of conviction concerning the true nature of terrorism and in part from a belief that the terrorists have a case, perhaps a just case, that they can be reasoned with, and finally won over by a number of adequate concessions.”

What was true then, is still true now. The difference is that some in Israel don’t want to just acquiesce to the PA attacking its citizens, but also to its promoting of the narrative that Israel is a racist apartheid state, which has successfully led to the moral delegitimization of the Jewish state.

Israel doesn’t just have regular meetings to collaborate with Palestinian officials, it has actively requested foreign assistance to ensure that the PA doesn’t collapse. During his visit to New York, Netanyahu revealed that he passed a decision in the security cabinet to not take any steps that undermine the PA. Keeping it stable, he said, is in Israel’s interest.

Even the Taylor Force Act, which I fought hard to help pass, needed a carve-out for security cooperation. The dramatic irony is that the Israeli security establishment is wedded to cooperation with the same entity that pays for killing its citizens, and then guarantees high-paying jobs upon release from prison. The IDF subcontracts the security of the Israeli citizenry to the PA, lending it money to bypass a Knesset law which passed with an overwhelming majority to hold back the money equivalent to what the PA pays to terrorists. I’M QUITE certain that Benzion Netanyahu would not agree with his son’s current policies which bolster the argument that the PA is the legitimate representative of the Palestinian Arabs. As a member of the AIPAC National Board of Directors for 12 years – a position I held until I pushed for the Taylor Force Act – I too believed the Western misguided narrative that Netanyahu’s late father highlighted almost 30 years ago: that the PA has a case, and if strengthened they will eventually crack down on radical elements to forge peace.

I was far from alone – not a single member of the 40-person board knew that the PA has a mandatory policy to reward and incentivize all terror against Israel, compensating each and every attack, without regard to the political or religious affiliation of the attacker. In fact, in 2015, only a single member of the Senate knew the PA pays terrorists; Senator Lindsey Graham thought it was just $5M per year, a far cry from the $350M.

We cannot ignore that the PA is supported by repressive regimes and pays for indiscriminate violence with a pay-for-slay program that dwarfs its separate social security system. We cannot turn a blind eye to the fact that so-called martyrs are paid more and before the living. We cannot be silent when we see PA corruption steal the future from young Palestinian women and men, or simply look away from the PA glorification of terrorists and an education system that teaches them to hate Israel.

Peace with KSA is possible, but not by strengthening the PA. Israel can make peace, but not by enabling its own destruction. The moral legitimacy of Israel must be restored, starting at home.

As Benzion concluded in his 1984 address: “…..civilizations may be subject to moral diseases which may kill them as surely as any bomb can. Our attitude toward terrorism and the way we treat it, the way we are getting conditioned to its horrors, and above all our reactions to the dangers of enslavement represented by the terrorists and their masters, indicate that we are struck with a serious moral sickness that debilitates our capacities to act as free men.”

The calculation of supporting the PA and hiding their sponsorship of terror has consequences beyond lives changed and lost. It degrades the moral legitimacy of the “Light unto the Nations.”

Benjamin Netanyahu – now is a perfect time to reread the words of your late father. A new year is an opportunity for new strength and resolve.

The writer is the chief executive of Hudson Bay Capital Management, a distinguished fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), and a member of the State Department’s Middle East Partnership for Peace Act (MEPPA) advisory board.

Originally Published in The Jerusalem Post

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On Feb. 14, 1945, President Franklin Roosevelt met King Abdul Aziz Al Saud, or Ibn Saud, the founder of Saudi Arabia, on the USS Quincy, a warship parked in the Suez Canal. Together, they transformed the Middle East and ushered in decades of close U.S.-Saudi ties. That conclave remains a cherished lodestar for the Saudis to this day, with pictures of it adorning their government offices, while the United States still calls its ambassador’s residence in Riyadh the Quincy House. However, less well-known is that bilateral bonding came at the expense of British Prime Minister Winston Churchill’s quiet efforts to fashion a postwar regional settlement that included a Jewish state.

Michael Makovsky, PhD is President and CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), and author of Churchill’s Promised Land (Yale University Press).

Originally published in Tablet Magazine.

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In early 2022, a missile and drone attack on the United Arab Emirates by Iran-backed rebels in Yemen killed three civilians. Collectively, the attacks highlighted an unsettling reality: the U.S. and its partners are one successful Iranian strike away from catastrophe, resulting in mass casualties, destruction of infrastructure vital to the global economy or both.

Some suspect Washington’s interest in integration is a ruse to facilitate further withdrawal. Overcoming those doubts will require a sustained campaign to make clear a U.S.-led effort on IAMD is designed to consolidate — not abandon — America’s enduring commitment to the region.

For 20 years, U.S. administrations have failed to advance Middle East IAMD. New dynamics have created the best opportunity in a generation for progress. But realizing it likely depends on Biden’s readiness to move the issue higher on his already-crowded list of national security priorities.

Retired U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella served as the U.S. Air Force’s deputy chief of staff for operations and as commander of U.S. Air Forces Central. Retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. David Mann served as commander of Army Space and Missile Defense Command. John Hannah, the Randi and Charles Wax Senior fellow with the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, served as national security adviser to former Vice President Dick Cheney.

Originally published in Defense News.

This op-ed was made possible by the generous support of the Gettler Family Foundation and a portion of the research was conducted on the Benjamin Gettler International Policy Trip.

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Keynote Speakers:

Representative Rob Wittman (R-VA) U.S. Rep. Rob Wittman has represented Virginia’s First Congressional District since 2007. He serves on the House Armed Services Committee as Vice Chairman of the full Committee and Chairman of the Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee which oversees all tactical air and missile defense programs and accounts at the Department of Defense. In addition, as Co-Chair of the Congressional Shipbuilding Caucus, he is a staunch advocate for a robust Naval fleet and a healthy domestic shipbuilding industry. Click here to read full bio

Representative Brad Schneider (D-IL) U.S. Rep. Brad Schneider represents Illinois’s 10th District, where he is serving his fifth term. He is a member of the House Committee on Ways and Means and the House Foreign Affairs Committee. He believes our nation and world benefit when the United States exercises leadership and engages with the international community. A longtime proponent of a strong U.S.-Israel relationship, and co-chair of the House Abraham Accords Caucus, Brad consistently leads on efforts in Congress to promote cooperation on security and counter Iran’s nefarious influence. Click here to read full bio

Panelists:

General Gilmary Michael Hostage III, USAF (ret.) Commander, Air Combatant Command JINSA 2017 Generals and Admirals Program participant Gen. Mike Hostage served as the commander of Air Combat Command. As the commander, he was responsible for organizing, training, equipping and maintaining combat-ready forces for rapid deployment and employment while ensuring strategic air defense forces are ready to meet the challenges of peacetime air sovereignty and wartime defense. He was a participant of JINSA’s 2017 Generals and Admirals Program, and a member of JINSA Gemunder Center’s U.S.-Israel Security and Hybrid Warfare policy projects. Click here to read full bio

Lt Gen Joseph Guastella, USAF (ret.) Former Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations, Headquarters, U.S. Air Force Lt Gen Joseph T. Guastella Jr., USAF (ret.) served as the Deputy Chief of Staff for Operations, Headquarters U.S. Air Force, Arlington, Virginia. In support of the Chief of Staff and Secretary of the Air Force, he led the development and implementation of policy directly supporting global operations, force management, weather, training and readiness across air, space and cyber fields. Previously, Lt. Gen. Guastella was the Commander, Air Forces Central Command, Al Udeid AB, Qatar. Click here to read full bio

LTG David Mann, USA (ret.) Former Commander General of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command/Army Forces Strategic Command and Joint Functional Component Command for Integrated Missile Defense LTG David Mann, USA (ret.) served as the commander of the U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command/Army Forces Strategic Command and Joint Functional Component Command for Integrated Missile Defense. Most recently, he served as the Commanding General of the U.S. Army Recruiting Command at Fort Knox, KY. Before that he served as the Commanding General, 32nd Army Air and Missile Defense Command, a theater level air and missile defense (AMD) organization responsible for executing global operations in support of the Combatant Commands (COCOMs). Click here to read full bio

Lt Gen Henry Obering, USAF (ret.) Former Director of the Missile Defense Agency Lt. Gen. Henry A. “Trey” Obering, USAF (ret.) served as the Director of the Missile Defense Agency, Office of the Secretary of Defense, Washington, D.C. As Director, General Obering was the Acquisition Executive for all ballistic missile defense systems and programs. Prior to his assignment at MDA, the general planned and programmed 68 joint, Air Force and international programs with a $28 billion budget as Mission Area Director for Information Dominance on the Air Staff. Lt Gen Obering is a member of JINSA Gemunder Center’s U.S.-Israel Security policy project. Click here to read full bio

Moderator:

David Sanger White House and national security correspondent, and senior writer, at The New York Times David E. Sanger is a White House and national security correspondent, and a senior writer. In a 38-year reporting career for The New York Times, he has been on three teams that have won Pulitzer Prizes, most recently in 2017 for international reporting. His newest book, “The Perfect Weapon: War, Sabotage and Fear in the Cyber Age,” and an HBO documentary by the same title, examine the emergence of cyberconflict and its role in the changing nature of global power. Click here to read full bio

The Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) is dedicated to educating Congressional, military and civilian national security decision-makers on American defense and strategic interests, primarily in the Middle East, the cornerstone of which is a robust U.S.-Israeli security cooperation. JINSA believes that a strong American military and national security posture is the best guarantor of peace and the survival of our values and civilization.

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At least for this former United States official, watching a longtime partner like the Saudis cozy up to so many anti-American adversaries so quickly and largely, it appears, without much regard for Washington’s interests, has been, well, jarring to watch.

So what’s going on? The short answer is that it’s not clear anyone knows for sure except, perhaps, the kingdom’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, otherwise known as MBS.

That said, I’ve been reviewing my notes from a trip to Riyadh last November with a delegation from the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA). We spent a week meeting top Saudi leaders. Nothing we heard would have led me to predict that less than four months later, the world would wake up to the shocking image of China’s top diplomat clasping hands with senior Saudi and Iranian negotiators. But in hindsight, there were plenty of clues dropped that provide important context for making sense of the kingdom’s recent machinations.

Saudi Arabia’s loss of confidence in its ties with the US

Three stand out. The first concerns Saudi Arabia’s collapsing confidence in the durability of its bilateral relationship with Washington. To a person, Saudi officials stressed that they want Washington to remain the kingdom’s core strategic partner. But their skepticism about America’s willingness to maintain its status as the region’s dominant outside power has never been higher.

For more than a decade, presidents from both parties have made clear their belief that Washington should be devoting less time and resources to the Middle East and far more to higher-priority theaters like the Indo-Pacific. President Joe Biden put his uniquely anti-Saudi spin on this abandonment narrative.

As a candidate, he pledged to turn MBS into a pariah for the grisly 2018 murder of Jamal Khashoggi. Within weeks of taking office, Biden ended US support for the Saudi war in Yemen, lifted the terrorist designation of Houthi rebels and declassified an intelligence assessment blaming MBS for Khashoggi’s death. When the Houthis responded by escalating attacks on Saudi territory, Biden withdrew US air defense assets from the kingdom.

Biden’s belated effort to course correct by visiting Saudi Arabia last July was almost immediately undone by his over-reaction to the Saudi-led decision in October for OPEC+ to cut oil production despite US objections. Rather than treat the matter as a serious but legitimate disagreement over the future of energy markets, Biden chose to cast it as an act of Saudi betrayal instead. He publicly threatened to impose consequences while his spokesman announced that Washington would re-evaluate the bilateral relationship.

WHEN JINSA’S delegation arrived five weeks later, the Saudis were still boiling over the humiliation of Biden’s chastisement. They couldn’t believe how quickly Biden had reverted to putting US-Saudi relations back on the chopping block. The fact that gasoline prices in America at that point were lower than they had been when OPEC+ announced its cut exacerbated the acute sense of grievance.

In a nutshell, the Saudis told us, “You say you’re re-evaluating relations with us. Well, Saudi Arabia is re-evaluating relations with you. We want America to continue being our main ally. But we’re reaching the conclusion that you’re tired of playing that role. If that’s the case, we’ll have to adjust. We can’t replace America. But your withdrawal will force us to compensate as best we can by making other arrangements to meet our security.”

Needing another way to stop Iran

The second point the Saudis made concerned their approach to Iran. They made clear that Iran is an existential threat. Their overwhelming preference is to rely on US military power to deter Iranian aggression, particularly its quest for nuclear weapons.

But, the Saudis warned, if the US no longer had the will to stop Iran, then the kingdom would have to pursue a much different course. In short, if they could no longer count on America, “[O]ur strategy will be to become Iran’s best friend.” They didn’t know exactly how they would do that, but the implication was unambiguous – diplomatic concessions, bribery, appeasement. “Whatever it takes, we’ll do.”

The most hair-raising assertion we heard in this respect was when referring to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, the regime’s arm for conducting external military operations, the Saudis reminded us that, “There’s a reason it’s called the Quds Force. Quds means Jerusalem. Their primary target is Israel. We’ll do what’s necessary to direct Iranian aggression away from Saudi Arabia.”

China’s economic leverage over Iran

The third point we heard that takes on added significance in hindsight concerned China. Just before our delegation arrived, the Iranians appeared on the verge of attacking Saudi Arabia over the kingdom’s financial backing of an Iranian-exile TV station that had aggressively covered Iran’s internal protest movement. To its credit, the Biden administration responded by sending military reinforcements to the region.

But the Saudis were especially impressed with Beijing’s reaction. They told us that China had promptly sent the Iranians a message that if they attacked Saudi Arabia, they should be under no illusion that China would support Iran. On the contrary, according to the Saudis, the Chinese had made clear that in terms of Beijing’s interests in the Middle East, Iran placed a distant third – tens of billions of dollars in annual trade behind both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. In the Saudi telling, China had wielded its substantial economic leverage with Iran on the kingdom’s behalf and in a manner that helped convince Iran to back down.

A crisis of confidence that Washington still has the kingdom’s back, a readiness to accommodate Iran if deemed necessary and a new-found belief in China’s willingness to use its growing regional clout in support of Saudi security are precisely the ingredients that now seem to be at play in Riyadh’s recent diplomatic maneuverings. If that’s accurate, both Washington and Jerusalem should be concerned.

Whatever short-term benefits the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement may deliver in terms of regional de-escalation could be far outweighed by the long-term costs of the underlying geopolitical shifts that the kingdom’s new diplomacy appears to reflect.

John Hannah is Randi and Charles Wax Senior Fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America. He served as a national security adviser to US vice president Dick Cheney.

Originally published in The Jerusalem Post.

This op-ed was made possible by the generous support of the Gettler Family Foundation and a portion of the research was conducted on the Benjamin Gettler International Policy Trip.

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Africa has emerged as a lynchpin of the global strategic balance of power. Renewed strategic competition and the proliferation of violent extremist organizations threaten to undermine the integrity of African states and key U.S. strategic interests. At the same time, these challenges present an opportunity for Morocco — America’s oldest treaty ally and a historical Maghrebi power — to come into its own as a regional leader and stability provider with the help of newfound Israeli technical and security support.

Following decades during which the United States’ focus has been diverted to other regions, U.S. competitors have achieved significant military entrenchment in Africa at the expense of the stability and political-economic independence of African countries. Beijing now refers to Africa as China’s “second continent,” according to AFRICOM commander Gen. Stephen Townsend.

Beyond its military inroads, China hopes to fuel its geoeconomic rise with African natural wealth, for example by increasingly monopolizing Africa’s rare earth minerals needed for the batteries and chips necessary for any green revolution. Meanwhile, Russian mercenaries are driving civil conflicts and military juntas across the continent.

At the sub-state level, Africa has seen a historic rise in violent extremist activity, destabilizing local African countries and creating openings for encroachment by U.S. competitors. The Sahel has become the global epicenter of jihadi extremist activity — with violent extremist organizations seizing territory and local economies, fomenting displacement crises, and compelling threatened regimes to turn to Russian and Chinese assistance. Iran also exploits this trend by equipping Islamic violent extremist organizations throughout Africa, from Somalia to West Africa.

The burgeoning Israeli-Moroccan partnership, with proper U.S. leadership and nurturing, can help address Africa’s great power and violent extremist challenges as well as unlock the continent’s promise.

Since their 2020 rapprochement, Israel and Morocco have taken significant steps toward balancing against the threat from Russia- and Iran-backed Algeria via their groundbreaking $500 million air defense deal in February 2022. Moreover, Morocco has become the largest source of foreign direct investment in West Africa, beating out even rising Chinese capital. By crowding out Chinese investments, an extension of Chinese military power, Morocco is helping to roll back China’s implicit challenge to U.S. security interests and local autonomy in these areas.

Morocco has also long stood out among the Islamic and African nations as a leader in counterterrorism, especially within the U.S.-led war on terror. If properly paired with Israeli counterterrorism expertise, Morocco is uniquely positioned to be a bulwark against terrorism in the Sahel and in Francophone Africa, where Morocco’s regional and Islamic credibility make it a fitting partner to take over from withdrawing French peacekeepers.

However, realizing the full potential of Israeli-Moroccan cooperation in Africa will require short-term U.S. investment and continuous U.S. strategic focus and political support. Despite their impressive progress, Israel and Morocco both lack certain advanced military systems and capital needed to fully operationalize their partnership. Likewise, the partnership itself is contingent on the U.S. respecting its commitments vis-a-vis the Western Sahara, which undergirded the 2020 Israel-Morocco normalization agreement.

The United States should provide more opportunities for these two partner militaries to train side by side. This should include upgrading Israel to full participation in African Lion — as well as incorporating Israel into other regional multilateral exercises — to optimize interoperability between Israel, Morocco and other regional partners. This is a crucial first step toward establishing a functional, semiautonomous security network.

The U.S. should also triangulate preexisting regional frameworks, such as the Utah National Guard State Partnership Program with Morocco and the bilateral agreement between the National Guard Bureau and the Israel Defense Forces, to maximize space for Israeli-Moroccan military coordination.

The Biden administration should also uphold Trump-era commitments to the Moroccan’s Western Sahara Autonomy Proposal — the critical underpinning for Israel-Morocco normalization — which have been rapidly adopted by the international community in recent months, reducing potential blowback from the policy.

Finally, the United States should help boost Morocco’s military-industrial capability. Most immediately, this entails equipping Morocco to overcome the menace of Russian and Iranian destabilization via Algeria, including fulfilling pending sales of precision-guided munitions and MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones. More broadly, the Biden administration should review short-term funding to help Israel and Morocco rapidly scale up their partnership in security, not to mention critical stability-providing domains like food, water and energy security.

These steps will not only allow Israel and Morocco to lead the way for a partner-led regional security strategy, but they will also create the stable geopolitical space necessary to unlock the potential of Israeli-Moroccan partnership in critical technological and financial domains. In a moment of both historic instability and opportunity, equipping our Middle Eastern and North African security partners to jointly shoulder the burden holds the key to setting a new course of mutual prosperity for the region.

Retired U.S. Army Lt. Gen. H. Steven Blum served as deputy commander of U.S. Northern Command from 2008-2010 and as chief of the National Guard Bureau from 2003-2008. In 2015, he was a participant in the Jewish Institute for National Security of America’s Generals and Admirals Program. Samuel B. Millner is a policy analyst at JINSA.

Originally published in Defense News.

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	Click here to read the report. Click here to read the report summary.

The Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) is dedicated to educating Congressional, military and civilian national security decision-makers on American defense and strategic interests, primarily in the Middle East, the cornerstone of which is a robust U.S.-Israeli security cooperation. JINSA believes that a strong American military and national security posture is the best guarantor of peace and the survival of our values and civilization.

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