JINSA Iran Strategy Council Report in The Washington Examiner
New threat: Iran getting Russian anti-air missiles, add to armed drone fleet
By Paul Bedard – The Washington Examiner
Even before the international nuclear deal is settled with Iran, the terrorist nation is set to get anti-aircraft missiles from Russia and would be allowed to buy submarines, drones and cyber weapons that could be used to challenge U.S dominance in the oil-rich region, according to a new report from top ex-Pentagon brass.
New threat: Iran getting Russian anti-air missiles, add to armed drone fleet
By Paul Bedard – The Washington Examiner
Even before the international nuclear deal is settled with Iran, the terrorist nation is set to get anti-aircraft missiles from Russia and would be allowed to buy submarines, drones and cyber weapons that could be used to challenge U.S dominance in the oil-rich region, according to a new report from top ex-Pentagon brass.
Realizing it can’t take on America’s full arsenal, Iran “has spent more than a decade pursuing a strategy to disrupt or deter the United States from projecting superior forces into the region, or to prevent those forces from operating effectively if deployed,” said the warning from the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs.
JINSA Iran Security Council’s Co-Chairs, retired Marine Commandant Gen. James Conway and retired Air Force Gen. Charles Wald, added, “Iran could seek to do so by sealing off the Persian Gulf at the Strait of Hormuz; degrading U.S. freedom of maneuver and military lines of communication; blocking the flow of oil through the Gulf; and targeting naval and commercial vessels, military bases, energy infrastructure and other vital sites inside and outside the Gulf.”
Released Wednesday, the new report details the likelihood that Iran will move fast to become a conventional military power under the nuclear deal President Obama is pushing through Congress.
As a result, it added, Iran could undermine U.S. naval and air authority in the Middle East and expand sponsorship of terror groups like ISIS — all with the approving nod of the agreement.
“Iran will be able to revitalize its defense industrial base in the short term, even if it devotes only a fraction of the $100 billion or more that will be unfrozen as part of the agreement – more than the government’s entire budget for the current fiscal year – to military spending. It is also set to acquire advanced S-300 air defenses from Russia at the end of this year,” said the report, shown below.
In addition, they warned that Iran would likely move to use submarines, ships equipped with missiles and drones to fight the U.S.
A key paragraph in the report titled “Assessment of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action: Strategic Consequences for U.S. National Security,” said of Iran:
“It possesses the region’s largest arsenal of short (SRBM) and medium-range (MRBM) ballistic missiles, as well as a growing arsenal of cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), to target military and energy installations throughout the Gulf, including U.S. ships. It also has a sizable fleet of fast attack craft, submarines and large numbers of torpedoes and naval mines for choking off Hormuz and attacking the aforementioned targets. The S-300 air defense systems could stymie U.S. air operations around the Gulf, in addition to complicating any strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Russian or Chinese-sourced anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles could give Iran an even greater standoff capability, allowing it to target U.S. naval assets beyond the Persian Gulf. Iran is also devoting attention to cyber warfare against the battle networks of U.S. forces and the critical infrastructure of its adversaries in the region.”
The brass raised other issues in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA:
— The JCPOA will not prevent a nuclear Iran. No later than 15 years, the deal’s major nuclear restrictions will lapse, Iran will stand on the brink of nuclear weapons capability, and once again the United States will likely have to devote significant resources and attention to keeping Tehran from attaining nuclear weapons.
— The JCPOA will give Iran the means to increase support for terrorist and insurgent proxies, aggravate sectarian conflict and trigger both nuclear and conventional proliferation cascades. It will provide the expansionist regime in Tehran with access to resources, technology and international arms markets required to bolster offensive military capabilities in the vital Persian Gulf region, acquire long-range ballistic missiles and develop other major weapons systems.
— Our long-standing allies feel betrayed – even angry – with the JCPOA, seeing it as a weakening of U.S. security guarantees and reversal of decades of U.S. regional security policy. The mere fact that such perceptions persist, regardless of their veracity, will undermine U.S. credibility, threatening to turn them into a self-fulfilling prophecy.
— Simultaneously, sequestration is diminishing the ability of the United States to respond to Iranian aggression, mitigate security threats emanating from Iran and protect U.S. regional allies. Leaving it with fewer and older ships and planes as well as fewer and less well-trained troops, these cuts will severely damage the U.S. military’s ability to project power in the region, even as the Iranian threat grows.
— The United States is in a far better position to prevent a nuclear Iran today, even by military means if necessary, than when the JCPOA sunsets. The strategic environment will grow much more treacherous in the next 15 years. Comparatively, Iran will be economically stronger, regionally more powerful and militarily more capable, while the United States will have a smaller, less capable fighting force, diminished credibility and fewer allies.