Lebanon Threw a Party. Too Soon?
They threw a party in Tripoli – Muslims and Christians flew the Lebanese flag and cheered the Lebanese Army (LAF) while residents in the towns near the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian camp prevented Fatah al Islam fighters from hiding in the local population. After months of heavy fighting and nearly 400 casualties – including more than 150 Lebanese soldiers – the LAF took control of/destroyed Nahr al-Bared. Lebanon is (momentarily) happy.
They threw a party in Tripoli – Muslims and Christians flew the Lebanese flag and cheered the Lebanese Army (LAF) while residents in the towns near the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian camp prevented Fatah al Islam fighters from hiding in the local population. After months of heavy fighting and nearly 400 casualties – including more than 150 Lebanese soldiers – the LAF took control of/destroyed Nahr al-Bared. Lebanon is (momentarily) happy.
“Momentarily” because Fatah al-Islam was only one part of the equation. Lebanon has multiple private armies controlling various parts of the country – not only Palestinian armies, but also an Iranian puppet army complete with Iranian trainers, bases, missiles and equipment. And, while the uniformed Syrian presence is gone, Syrian weapons, military and intelligence assets remain in place.
Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Siniora pledged to rebuild the camp (with international aid, of course, not his money) and permit Palestinians to return, but said Lebanon would have “full control” and the government would not let terrorists base themselves there. The camp, he added, would become “a model of the real relationship and healthy relationship between the Lebanese and the Palestinians.” If so, it will be something entirely new in their mutually abusive history.
In the 1980s, Arafat ran a veritable “who’s who” of international terrorism in the south. In the ’90s, Hezbollah used the camps and since the Syrian army left in 2005, there are reports that Syria has been hiding agents, fighters and weapons in them. The (Sunni) Palestinians were relatively quiet during last summer’s war in the south, but supported (Shiite) Hezbollah. (Sunni) Palestinian Fatah al Islam in the north is said to have (majority-Sunni, but Shiite/Alawite-ruled) Syrian support and (Sunni) al Qaeda roots.
The LAF victory in Nahr al Bared is a very good thing in and for the north, but relations among the players are being strained elsewhere and most of the rest of the world is terrifyingly indifferent including Lebanon’s presumed Western ally, France, and the United States. Terrifying because unlike in Las Vegas, what happened there will not stay there.
The Alawites are beginning to fear Sunni jihad at home – Fatah al Islam may have been a Syrian attempt to placate al Qaeda outside Syrian borders. If so, look for strains between Syria and its Iranian protector, which is also Hezbollah’s protector. How far would Syrian President Bahar al Assad go to retain control? In 1982, his father, then-President Hafez al Assad, used artillery to destroy the city of Hama (Homs), the seat of the Sunni Muslim Brotherhood in Syria. The ICRC wasn’t allowed near the city, but estimates of casualties run to more than 20,000. Junior may have more trouble physically ridding Syria of al Qaeda-supported jihad, but may believe that a) he can co-opt it for use outside Syria or b) switch sides if he doesn’t think Iran can protect him. Remember, Syria fomented the Lebanese Civil War in the 1970s and then changed sides in the middle. Russian re-entry into Syria is a wild card.
And remember, too, that Israel became embroiled in Lebanon in the ’70s because chaos aids those who have larger-scale destruction in mind. Lebanon may have partied too soon.