History is Back

After WWII, Russia secured itself in Central Europe by force, stopping halfway through Germany only because it reached American lines. A half-century later, communism dissolved. “History is over,” the pundit said. In that giddy moment, President Clinton and the West made a blunder of enormous magnitude, treating Russia as if it was itself one of the “captive nations” instead of their captor. But it wasn’t a disembodied “communism” that occupied Central Europe and the Baltics; it was Imperial Russia with a communist government. History didn’t end when the communists were gone.

After WWII, Russia secured itself in Central Europe by force, stopping halfway through Germany only because it reached American lines. A half-century later, communism dissolved. “History is over,” the pundit said. In that giddy moment, President Clinton and the West made a blunder of enormous magnitude, treating Russia as if it was itself one of the “captive nations” instead of their captor. But it wasn’t a disembodied “communism” that occupied Central Europe and the Baltics; it was Imperial Russia with a communist government. History didn’t end when the communists were gone.

When the empire dissolved, parts of what Russia considers its territory and its security borders also struck out on their own. Belarus, Chechnya, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine all had or have greater or lesser political/economic/military trouble with Russia.

The Russian war in Georgia has less to do with South Ossetia than with Georgia’s determination to secure itself to the West – specifically to NATO. Russia objects and has decided to punish Georgia in the traditional manner of imperial countries – as it always has and as others used to do. France, Britain, Germany and the Austro-Hungarian Empire don’t march their armies across Europe any more – they don’t have armies to march and it isn’t clear that they could define strategic interests worth fighting for. They were shamed into peacekeeping in Kosovo and backed into Afghanistan. Today, Russia is the only one of the former great powers still willing to use military force proactively to achieve strategic goals in Europe.

Our sympathies, of course, lie with Georgia, pro-Western, democratic and lying next to the Bear. But the Bear is on a roll.

This is not a new Cold War; Russia poses no ideological or existential threat to the United States. But this is a resurgent and aggressive Russia, newly wealthy, authoritarian and determined to recoup its former glory. Whether with Iran, Venezuela or with the states of its near abroad, Russia will continue to threaten American and European interests. History is back and this time Georgia is paying the price.

Western countries and the Japanese have called for Russian “restraint.” They have been ignored, as they were when Russian troops were “pacifying” Chechnya. Monday’s reports indicate that Russian troops have gone beyond securing South Ossetia and Abkhazia and are moving toward the Georgian capital. Absent a Western military response – and we see none in the offing – Russia will likely punish Georgia until it believes Georgia no longer poses a political threat.

The West then must, at a minimum, find some way to use its political or economic muscle to impress upon Russia the depths of our outrage. The G-8 should become the G-7 post haste. Georgia asked the EU to freeze its “strategic partnership” talks with Russia – it seems the least the EU can do. And when the political phase begins, as it likely will, the West should be there to back Georgia’s claims for territorial integrity and a peacekeeping force comprised of Europeans.

We can do no less.