Reset Relationships, Part II
The Obama Administration wants to improve relations with Russia, Iran and Syria. What, or who, will they trade? What do Russia, Syria and Iran want?
Russia: The administration wants cooperation against the proliferation of WMD and missile technology, particularly with respect to Iran. The Russians want recognition of a sphere of influence in the countries on their perimeter – Central Europe and Central Asia. They want NATO to drop bids from Georgia and Ukraine, and to rescind the decision to put missile interceptors in Poland and the Czech Republic.
The Obama Administration wants to improve relations with Russia, Iran and Syria. What, or who, will they trade? What do Russia, Syria and Iran want?
Russia: The administration wants cooperation against the proliferation of WMD and missile technology, particularly with respect to Iran. The Russians want recognition of a sphere of influence in the countries on their perimeter – Central Europe and Central Asia. They want NATO to drop bids from Georgia and Ukraine, and to rescind the decision to put missile interceptors in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Iran: The administration demands an end to Iran’s quest for nuclear capability and/or weapons; a quiet Iran-Iraq border; an end to calls for the destruction of Israel; and a halt to the funding of international terror groups. If a deal was to be had – which we doubt for reasons having to do with 30 years of Iranian pursuit of nuclear capability and a theological belief in the expansion of radical Islam – the price would be recognition and legitimization of the regime.
Syria: The administration is seeking Syrian separation from Iran and an end to its support of terrorism. Syria needs money and demands the Golan Heights as well as recognition of its “special relationship” with Lebanon – meaning legitimization of its role in the military and political structure of Lebanon.
In each case, the deal might bring the United States a measure of success on worthy, if very limited goals – assuming others live up to their commitments. In the aggregate, they comprise realpolitik – 1970s-style great power deals with dictators for stability on the backs of their people. The fact that Henry Kissinger was in Moscow in December for the Obama Administration is telling. The effect is to allow the United States to disengage on a broad foreign policy front. Realpolitik is another name for isolationism.
Those left behind comprise a long list of countries and peoples including Georgians, Ukrainians, Czechs, Poles and those who rely on Russian natural gas in winter; the millions who threw off the yoke of Soviet oppression – not just Europeans, but Russians as well; Central Asians who hope for increased not decreased American attention to help stem the radicalism that has become a feature of their lives; Iranians condemned to a permanent Mullocracy, and those across the Muslim world who believe in the modern democratic world and fear the spread of 11th Century Islamic radicalism, and; independent Lebanese.
The United States cannot fix the world, but neither should we forget that to many people, America stands for something more. The Obama Administration must add to its negotiating objectives with Russia, Iran and Syria respect for human rights, civil liberties and rule of law – including the rights of women and minorities; respect for international contracts, including the delivery of natural gas to Europe when and at the price contracted; tolerance for the political choices made by the countries of the former Warsaw Pact and the independent countries of the former Soviet empire; and respect for the sovereignty Lebanon and Israel.
Anything less would be a step backward for America in a turbulent world.