Jimmy Carter Obama

The precipitating factor in Anwar Sadat’s historic trip to Jerusalem was his understanding and fear that President Carter wanted to reprise the 1973 U.S.-Soviet sponsored Geneva Peace Conference. Sadat had thrown the Soviets out of Egypt after the Yom Kippur War and aligned himself with the West. He calculated that it was better to fly to Israel and speak before the Knesset than to have to do business with the Russians again.

Afghans, no doubt, understand.

The precipitating factor in Anwar Sadat’s historic trip to Jerusalem was his understanding and fear that President Carter wanted to reprise the 1973 U.S.-Soviet sponsored Geneva Peace Conference. Sadat had thrown the Soviets out of Egypt after the Yom Kippur War and aligned himself with the West. He calculated that it was better to fly to Israel and speak before the Knesset than to have to do business with the Russians again.

Afghans, no doubt, understand.

Having at great, wrenching and bloody cost ousted the Soviets from Afghanistan, Afghans must be looking on with horror as the United States invites the Russians to be part of the coalition to determine Afghanistan’s future.

While the Obama Administration is hoping to “reset” relations with Russia, Russia is laying out its priorities. First, of course, is to have the United States rescind plans to put Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) radars in Poland and the Czech Republic, but second and rising in importance, is the reassertion of Russian influence in Central Asia. Laying $2 billion on the table, Russia induced Kyrgyzstan to cancel the United States lease on the Manas Air Base that is central to resupplying coalition forces in Afghanistan. Russia has offered the United States alternative routes – through Russia.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev was quoted in The Chicago Sun-Times saying, “Let’s hope the new U.S. administration will be more successful than the previous one in dealing with the Afghan settlement. We are ready to work on the most acute issues, such as … deliveries of non-military cargo.”

In other words, Russia wants to hold a key place in the supply line to the Afghan war that President Obama has called the central front. Medvedev called deliveries of “non-military cargo” an “acute issue.” What about military cargo? Can we ship that? Do we need Russia’s permission? What if we get it today and lose it tomorrow because of the BMD radars or support for Georgia and Ukraine? Or something we haven’t even thought of yet?

In the 1980s, wise Americans warned Western European countries against building a natural gas pipeline from the Soviet Union and hinging Europe’s energy future on Moscow’s good will. When the Europeans declined the wise advice, the United States denied them access to pipeline technology and the deal collapsed, leading to increased exploitation of Norwegian and British North Sea oil and gas. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the Europeans built the pipeline. It is very, very cold in Europe this winter as Russia continues periodically to withhold gas to Ukraine, disrupting supplies across the continent.

There is a moral problem inherent in restoring the Russians to the Afghan mix; there is a practical problem hinging our ability to resupply our soldiers on Russian good will.