It is unclear what exactly was achieved by Trump’s two-month bombing campaign, which cost over $1 billion. The US president said the attacks were meant to stop Houthi strikes on ships. But the Houthis haven’t claimed an attack on a commercial ship since December 27, and the last verified attack was in November.
The US military also lost seven Reaper drones since the expanded American attacks began in March, each costing $28 million. And it lost two F/A-18 Super Hornet fighter jets, which are worth at least $67 million each.
“We’re basically back to where we were four months ago, just with many lives lost in Yemen and after considerable expenses to the US taxpayer,” argued Wolf-Christian Paes, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “The Houthis will use this as an opportunity to regroup and rearm, while the US is further weakened.”
“The ceasefire’s artificial separation between the October 7 war and the Red Sea means that the Houthis will be able to rest, refit and attack Israel,” said Brian Carter of the American Enterprise Institute. “All while implementing the lessons they learned fighting the US Navy and preparing for new escalation against the United States and its allies that could begin at any time and for any reason.”
He expressed his belief that “the United States will need to fight the Houthis again in the future.”
Yet some experts were more optimistic about the ceasefire.
“The unexpected announcement by Trump that the Houthis are in fact capitulating would be a major victory and powerful affirmation of Trump’s instincts in wielding US power,” said John Hannah, senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) and former national security adviser to US Vice President Dick Cheney.
“If it’s true, Iran better take heed.”
If the Houthis do continue firing at Israeli-linked civilian ships and at the country itself, Israel is unlikely to be capable of forcing them to stop through airstrikes.
It’s not even clear that hundreds of US strikes are what caused the Houthis to agree to a ceasefire with Washington.
Two Iranian officials told The New York Times that it was Iran that persuaded the Houthis to stop their attacks on US assets, as Tehran engages in nuclear talks with the US.
The US has been bombing Houthi targets since the Biden administration launched Operation Poseidon Archer in January 2024.
Carter called that effort “a series of reactive half-measures that have not achieved decisive effects or meaningfully degraded Houthi military capabilities.”
In March, Trump sharply increased the scale and pace of attacks with Operation Rough Rider.
Even before the ceasefire announcement, the US campaigns were having some effect. There was a noticeable drop in Houthi attacks on civilian shipping and in total attacks starting in the summer of 2024. The recent intensified campaign took out leaders, stockpiles, and infrastructure. Resupply is becoming harder for the Houthis, and they’ve fired much of their high-end arsenal.
But even facing hundreds of US strikes, they continued shooting at US military vessels and at Israel.
Though Israel has shown it is capable of pulling off long-range raids in Yemen, it would not be able to match the US operational tempo.
And it seems there is an intelligence gap. Israeli jets have hit the Hodeidah port on four separate occasions, boasting about the impact on the Houthis’ economy and military every time. Against powerful foes, the Houthis have proven resilient. As in Afghanistan, Yemen’s mountainous terrain is a valuable asset to guerrilla groups facing aerial attacks.
And over the years, they have learned how to adapt to aerial campaigns, hiding key assets or moving them underground.
It appears Israel may run out of meaningful targets before the Houthis run out of missiles.
Even if Israel is able to strike consistently, the Houthis have many reasons to keep firing at the Jewish state.
Violence against Israel and the US is central to the Houthi ideology. As the group’s slogan goes: “God Is the Greatest, Death to America, Death to Israel, A Curse Upon the Jews, Victory to Islam.”
A poor tribal group in the desert that almost no one had heard of 15 years ago, the Houthis are now enjoying unprecedented popularity across the Muslim world as the vanguard of the fight against Israel.
“What better way for an otherwise despised and marginalized Shiite sect to claim what remains of the mantle of Arab nationalism and Islamic resistance than taking regular potshots at the Jews and Great Satan?” explained Hannah. “And all in service of defending Palestinian rights and preparing to reconquer Al Quds (Jerusalem) to boot. It’s pure Jihadi gold.”
It’s also a convenient means of diverting public attention from the widespread poverty, hunger and corruption in Yemen. Houthi attacks are far more popular than the group itself. An October poll found that only 8% of respondents in Houthi-controlled areas viewed the group favorably, while 35% approved of the attacks.
There are a few pressure points that Israel could target to deter the Houthis from hitting Israel.
“If this were a different entity, civilian casualties might be a factor, but the Houthis seem to be relatively immune to that,” said Paes.
Sunday’s Houthi attack imposed a steep cost on Israel, as it led to a wave of flight cancellations.
Still, the most important element in the conflict with the Houthis is the implications for Israel’s confrontation with Iran.
Israel’s ability to strike high-value targets nearly 2,000 kilometers away is undoubtedly making leaders in Iran nervous, with Tehran only 1,500 kilometers away.
“A Houthi capitulation will have underscored both the positive strategic benefits to be gained from close US-Israel military cooperation against their common enemies,” said Hannah, “as well as the opportunities that exist for that same combination going forward to degrade the Iranian threat in all its dimensions.”
But the ceasefire also points to a clear danger for Israel. Trump surprised Jerusalem with his announcement, and didn’t seem to care much about what it meant for Israel’s security.
This mirrors the nightmare scenario for Israel as Trump pursues nuclear talks with Iran.
With Israel on the sidelines, the president could suddenly announce a deal with Iran that leaves its nuclear program intact. Israel would find itself isolated, and unlike in the Houthi case, it would be inconceivable that it would attack Iran after an agreement with Trump.
The US president has talked tough on Iran. Yet his partiality toward agreements with enemies through direct talks seems to be driving policy, and Israel’s point men — Ambassador Yechiel Leiter and Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer — have failed to influence policy or even keep abreast of secret talks.
With Trump coming to the region next week, and not planning to stop in Israel, more surprises could be in store.