Read the full article in the Washington Examiner.
Trump’s Two Paths for Iran War: Negotiation or Escalation
President Donald Trump has made clear there are two very different directions the war in Iran could take in the coming weeks: a negotiated end or an attempt to escalate the war to win it, which comes with risks.
The president announced on Thursday that the United States would extend the negotiating window to prevent a major escalation, which he had already extended. He initially gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz last Saturday, then pushed the deadline back on Monday before it expired by five days; Thursday’s announcement preempted the expiration of Monday’s deadline.
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One such possibility would be for U.S. forces to try to invade one of the small islands off Iran’s coast in the Persian Gulf, north of the strait. But that also means ensuring those troops have the air support necessary for their safety.
“The ground forces we are deploying have the capability to take one of these small islands — perhaps Kharg,” former U.S. Central Command head Gen. Joseph Votel told the Washington Examiner. “But we would have to be prepared to reinforce and sustain them if they are going to hold it for an extended time. Putting troops on the ground implies that we can get them there and then support, sustain, and protect them. There is risk involved in all of this, and of course, those risks would need to [be] mitigated.”
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Votel, who oversaw the war on terrorism as CENTCOM chief from 2016-19, agreed and warned that Iran could respond to American escalation with further escalation.
“For them this conflict is existential; its about survival. I think they value this over the destruction that is being wrought on their country,” Votel said. “My concern would be that an attempt to escalate to deescalate may result in even greater escalation.”
“There does not seem to be a serious internal threat to the regime at this point. The [Revolutionary Guard] hardliners are proving to be the backbone for the current regime and appear to be ascendant in influence over the theocratic leadership,” he added.
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