Keeping Talks With U.S. Sputtering Along, Iran May Be Looking for Time, Not a Deal

The latest stutter steps to plague US-Iran talks — marked by cancellations and missed meetings in Pakistan — has sharpened a central question hanging over the high-stakes negotiation: Is this a temporary breakdown, or evidence that the two sides are not negotiating at the same table at all?

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Michael Makovsky, president of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, explained that Ali Khamenei borrowed heavily from his predecessor Ruhollah Khomeini in his openness to trading concessions for diplomatic gains.

Khomeini famously referred to the 1988 agreement ending the Iran-Iraq war, which he okayed, as “more deadly than drinking from a poisoned chalice.”

But the IRGC, known for its hardline opposition to the West, might not be as willing to make compromises.

“I don’t know if the head of the IRGC could do that here,” Makovsky said. “It’s going to be harder for them to drink a poison chalice and work out an arrangement with the United States.”

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Trump demands that Iran give up all enrichment and seems keen to avoid anything resembling the 2015 deal.

“I don’t see how to reconcile the two sides,” Makovsky added. “I don’t see how the Iranians are ever going to give up their nukes… It’s just not in their DNA.”

Makovsky noted that Trump appeared similarly unwilling to budge on the nuclear issue.

“For a guy with an erratic personality, he’s been very steadfast in focusing on the nukes,” he said.

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According to reports, Iran has proposed sequencing negotiations to address the Strait of Hormuz and other issues while saving the nuclear issue for last, a strategy that could see it avoid war and resume economic trade without giving up its primary piece of leverage.

Nonetheless, Makovsky claimed Trump was unlikely to lift the blockade without concessions on the nuclear front.

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Makovsky, who predicted that “a renewed round of fighting is inevitable,” noted that the hope for regime change in Iran should weigh on US deliberations.

Any deal Trump makes is liable to bolster the regime in some way rather than buttress opposition forces who could renew protests and bring it down.

“You don’t want to make a deal that demoralizes them,” Makovsky said. “You want to encourage them to rise up and bring down the regime with [American] protection.”

 Read the full article in the Times of Israel.