Project Freedom Unlikely to Pay Off Right Away, Analysts Say

As the United States unfurls a multi-layered plan to help commercial vessels safely transit the Strait of Hormuz, analysts tell Breaking Defense it will likely take time for commercial shipping companies to feel safe enough to move ships through the waters, with U.S. forces carrying a greater risk in the interim.

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Jonathan Ruhe, Fellow for American Strategy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), also said that Project Freedom won’t alleviate concerns from commercial shippers immediately, claiming that they are “risk averse” because even a single mine or drone strike could lead to crew casualties and take ships offline for months — even if the ship isn’t sunk. 

“This puts a heavy burden of proof on the U.S. to show that the Strait is safe to transit, but that hasn’t happened yet,” Ruhe said. “The U.S. hasn’t made clear how it plans to reopen the Strait, which gives Iran plenty of leeway to keep deterring any shippers who might think of risking the transit.”

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Ruhe said that the Iranian regime has incentive to fight because it has “staked so much on controlling the Strait,” and therefore “can’t afford to let the U.S. cross this redline unhindered.” 

“Unlike the U.S. blockade, which operates beyond the range of Iran’s anti-ship capabilities, this new operation puts US forces right up against the IRGC Navy,” Ruhe said. “Though it’s been hit hard, the IRGC Navy is built for exactly this kind of fight, and it retains enough fast attack craft, naval mines, missiles and drones, and tactical air defenses to credibly threaten U.S. forces.”

Read the full article in Breaking Defense.