GEN (ret.) Joseph Votel on NPR: The Ceasefire Is “Holding Politically but Degrading Operationally”

JINSA Generals & Admirals Program participant and former CENTCOM Commander GEN (ret.) Joseph Votel joined NPR’s Morning Edition to assess Iran’s counterproposal to U.S. demands and offer a sober read of where the conflict is headed militarily and diplomatically.

On Iran’s confidence in the negotiations, GEN (ret.) Votel argued it should come as no surprise, noting that Iran “survived an eight-year war with Iraq amidst horrendous suffering of their people” and that “there is a certain amount of wasta coming with this” — a belief that they can wait the U.S. out. On the military situation, he described U.S. forces as continuing to enforce the blockade, now having turned back nearly 70 ships, while using the ceasefire period to “replenish and resupply” so that forces are prepared should a “more robust military posture” be required. On the ceasefire itself, he offered a careful but telling assessment, saying it is “holding politically but degrading operationally” given the continued strikes back and forth between both sides.

On what comes next, GEN (ret.) Votel argued that “the onus really has to be on the diplomatic element of power at this point,” saying there is “not much more we can do militarily other than respond to the situation that develops.” On Netanyahu’s suggestion that Iran taking over the strait was unforeseeable, he was blunt: “It was absolutely foreseeable. Every war game, every study we’ve ever had has suggested that Iran would use the Strait of Hormuz as a point of leverage.” On the prospects for a deal, he was measured, noting that both sides “still seem to be at kind of extreme ends” of their negotiating positions and that “fundamentally, there’s got to be trust built between two sides before they can begin to move towards the middle.”

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