After Israeli, U.S. Strikes, Europeans Hope Snapback Threats Push Iran to Tougher Nuclear Deal
Late last month, Britain, France and Germany triggered the “snapback mechanism” on Iran, initiating the process of reinstating UN sanctions on the country for its failure to comply with a 2015 deal designed to thwart its ability to build nuclear weapons.
At the same time, the countries, known as the E3, said they would continue their diplomatic efforts over the next 30 days to reach an arrangement with Iran over its nuclear program.
Israel welcomed the move, but warned that Iran wasn’t about to change course.
…
Iran’s nuclear program is in a state of “suspended animation,” said Jonathan Ruhe, director of foreign policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
“It likely still retains some basic infrastructure and know-how to try to complete a crude test device, but it also has every reason to think it’d be caught and punished. The key factor in Iran’s nuclear next steps is not technical, but psychological – it’s deterred for now by the fear of being hit again.”
…
“If well executed and coordinated, diplomacy might coerce a weakened Iran to meaningfully restrict its nuclear capacity and stop obstructing IAEA inspectors,” said Ruhe. “But the predicates for successful diplomacy are a united US-E3 front and consistent attention from Washington, both of which are missing.”
Though Iran does not seem to be rebuilding its nuclear program now, there is no guarantee it won’t do so in another six months or a few years down the road.
…
Despite those challenges, there is potential to make the sanctions bite, argued Ruhe.
The sanctions can be “as damaging as America, Europe, and others are willing to make it,” he said. “The UN sanctions are incredibly strong on paper, effectively prohibiting Iran’s entire nuclear and ballistic missiles programs, cutting it off from the global arms trade, and mandating compliance from every UN member. But enforcement requires concerted US and European diplomatic leadership and coordination. Israel’s military credibility offers helpful leverage for the US and Europe here.”
…
Read the full piece in the Times of Israel.