Amid Threats of Fresh Bout With Iran, Experts Warn Missile Defenses May Not Be Ready

As reports pile up of intelligence pointing to renewed Iranian missile production since the June war with Israel, analysts increasingly believe that a fresh confrontation with Iran may be approaching.

But a new war may find Israel less equipped to defend itself against Tehran’s still-potent missile threat than it was in the 12-day round of fighting in the spring.

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“It’s a very real concern,” said Ari Cicurel, associate director of foreign policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs (JINSA). “Both Israel and the US used an immense amount of their interceptor stockpiles… we are still very far behind in replenishing to get back to what we had before.”

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JINSA estimated that US THAAD interceptions accounted for roughly half of all missiles shot down during the war. In addition to THAAD, US forces were also reported to have fired around 80 ship-based RIM-161 Standard Missile-3 interceptors, meaning more that half of all interceptions were seemingly thanks to Uncle Sam.

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According to Cicurel, the fighting underscored a hard lesson for both Israel and its allies: “What we had before isn’t enough — that baseline is not sufficient.”

The sheer volume of interceptors required, he said, exposed the limits of existing missile-defense assumptions in the face of sustained, high-intensity missile attacks.

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“You’re seeing an increasing [American] deprioritization of Europe and of the Middle East that is definitely concerning, considering the immense threats that still endure with Russia and Iran,” Cicurel told The Times of Israel.

According to him, US President Donald Trump and his administration have increasingly focused American strategic attention elsewhere, particularly on China and Venezuela.

“What has continued is that the Trump administration… [still sees] Israel as a strategic partner to the United States,” Cicurel added.

But securing American backing in a future conflict with Iran, he warned, may require more than long-standing ties alone, stressing that “we need to further expand that [partnership] going forward as the United States is increasingly looking to other regions.”

According to Cicurel, Iran is “leveraging the pause” in hostilities with Israel to replenish its missile arsenal.

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“The last war, Israel had an immense advantage by launching this surprise attack,” Cicurel explained. “If that isn’t the case in the next war, either because Iran is able to repair its air defenses, it’s more prepared or because it chooses to preempt instead — which is a very real possibility — the early course of the war could drag out.”

Cicurel was referring to Iran’s decision to open the previous conflict with large, coordinated missile salvos, beginning with a wave of roughly 100 ballistic missiles launched simultaneously. While those barrages eventually slackened in size and frequency, analysts caution that Iran has since had time to assess its performance, repair damage and refine its operational approach.

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In a future confrontation, Cicurel said, Iran may be better positioned to launch repeated salvos over a longer period, especially if Israel lacks the element of surprise. That shift could transform the opening phase from a rapid Israeli advantage into a prolonged and more evenly matched exchange that is drawn out well beyond 12 days, with disastrous consequences for both sides.
“In that environment, the length of the war — the intensity of the attacks on both sides — could possibly increase,” Cicurel said.

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Cicurel highlighted the continued presence of Iran’s regional proxies as another key concern.

“Obviously, Israel is fighting Hezbollah still,” he said, noting the recent rise in Israeli strikes in Lebanon aimed at keeping the Iran-backed proxy from rearming. And there is also an ongoing threat from Yemen, where Houthi rebels have shown the ability to launch limited salvos of long-range missiles at Israel.

“The Houthis are building a ballistic missile threat that may even surpass Iran’s soon,” he warned.

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