Israel and Obama on June 4
On June 4, President Obama is scheduled to give a much promoted presentation from Cairo. It is intended to be a major statement of reconciliation to the Islamic world outlining in greater detail his plans and visions for American engagement in the region. Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have clearly been consulted and have signed off the speech.
On June 4, President Obama is scheduled to give a much promoted presentation from Cairo. It is intended to be a major statement of reconciliation to the Islamic world outlining in greater detail his plans and visions for American engagement in the region. Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have clearly been consulted and have signed off the speech.
Given all the ballyhoo, staging and publicity leading up to the address, something dramatic and significant needs to be said otherwise the President will look foolish. I believe he had hoped to kick start a peace process by announcing that Israel would freeze its settlement program including not allowing for natural growth.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has already resisted the intensive pressure to freeze settlements and was right to do so as long as the Palestinians refuse to recognize the State, Nation and People of Israel and refuse to end terrorism. This, not settlements, must logically be the first item in negotiations between Palestinians and Israel.
Two things are certain. The first is that President Obama will base all his comments on a two state solution and the second is that he will be making the case for comprehensive negotiations which can be both good and bad.
In his pursuit of a two state solution, the President will be joined by the United Nations, the heads of all European states, the Pope, almost all of the mainline Protestant churches (not, however, the fundamentalist churches), the major papers throughout the world including the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and most of the major dailies, a significant percentage of Israel’s population, a significant percentage of the American people, the Kadimah and Labor parties in Israel, both the Democratic and Republican Party platforms, the Arab League, a large segment of the Jewish community, Russia, and China.
Netanyahu can also be considered willing to accept a two state solution with full autonomy for the Palestinians as long as they are totally demilitarized and are not free to engage in foreign policy initiatives that could result in dangerous military arrangement and treaties. It is a condition that, despite its logic, no one is willing to entertain.
Without the traditional backing of the United States, the pressure on Israel to make dangerous concessions will be great.
But the Obama presentation will be more comprehensive. It will be some combination of the Saudi plan, the Arab League plan and the Road Map. In essence, it will call for full recognition of Israel as a nation with defensible borders as defined by some entity other than the Israeli government, the division of Jerusalem with internationalization of its holy sites, Israeli withdrawal from most of the West bank, the return of the Golan Heights to Syria. Furthermore, those who claim the right of return will be compensated financially from Arab coffers. All of President Obama’s vision probably won’t be spelled out in full detail on June 4.
The good news is that Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt and perhaps some of the Gulf States will be willing to come to the table without being tied to Palestinian approval. In other words, it will not be the historic “Whatever Yasser wants” approach.
The bad news is that President Obama will try to compel Israel to make serious territorial concessions that threaten her security for rhetorical commitments from the Palestinians that can be reversed on a whim. The Arabs are notorious for not fulfilling commitments made between themselves. Without the Golan Heights and West Bank, Israel is physically maimed. Without Jerusalem she is spiritually maimed.
Owing to Netanyahu’s Churchill-like firm commitment to Israel’s security and a one state solution and Obama’s equally firm Chamberlain-like approach to international affairs including a two state solution, the big question that remains is, is a U.S.-Israel confrontation inevitable?
On June 4 we will know more, but from all indicators the answer is probably yes.