JINSA CEO Quoted by the Washington Post
It’s containment, for sure
By Jennifer Rubin
February 4, 2014
Raymond Tanter at Foreign Policy looks at what a hypothetical post-mortem would look like if the Iran talks fail. As he notes, even the president has given talks only a 50-50 chance, so the exercise isn’t merely academic. He argues that a postmortem would conclude that we didn’t give Iran enough of an incentive to dismantle its nuclear weapons program.
It’s containment, for sure
By Jennifer Rubin
February 4, 2014
Raymond Tanter at Foreign Policy looks at what a hypothetical post-mortem would look like if the Iran talks fail. As he notes, even the president has given talks only a 50-50 chance, so the exercise isn’t merely academic. He argues that a postmortem would conclude that we didn’t give Iran enough of an incentive to dismantle its nuclear weapons program.
I’m more interested in another question: What is Obama’s back-up plan? I mean, given his own odds, he should have one. And if he has one and it would be something other than capitulation (i.e. containment of a nuclear weapons program), why wouldn’t he want at least the Iranians to know it? He’s very much into a theory of foreign policy that characterizes impasses as “miscommunication” or “distrust.” But Iran could make a horrible error, for example, if it rebuffed the Obama team on the theory that the first six months would be followed by another six months of negotiations. Indeed, the European Union’s chief negotiator, Catherine Ashton, is already hinting at a 6-month extension. (“We have no guarantees in this and we will take the time that is necessary to get this to be the right agreement.”)
Michael Makovsky, CEO of the pro-Israel group JINSA, remarks, “Perhaps the only surprise in Lady Ashton’s remarks is that they were uttered so soon after the interim deal was announced instead of closer to the six-month deadline. The result is to reduce further the pressure on the Iranians to cut a final deal, thereby reducing our leverage with them and lowering further the chances for an acceptable deal.” He adds, “Meanwhile, sanctions are weakening, Iran appears to be selling more oil and meeting with Western executives as its nuclear program advances. This won’t end well.”