As Hormuz Talks Stall, Experts See Economic Pressure—Not War—As Trump’s Likely Path

Talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz appear unlikely to produce an agreement, analysts told Jewish Insider this week, with little sign that Washington and Tehran can bridge their competing demands over the waterway. The Trump administration is more likely to pursue continued economic pressure than return to military confrontation, the experts suggested — but that strategy may not be enough to force Tehran to back down.

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“Iran is unlikely to give up control of the strait anytime soon, having spent years threatening to choke the waterway and finally proving it can with relatively few cheap missiles and drones,” Ari Cicurel, associate director of foreign policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, told JI. “The mere threat of attacks remains Iran’s best leverage after a war that gutted its economy, which is why its demands for reopening [the strait] center on Washington lifting the blockade and pulling back forces, the two things that give the United States its own leverage, leaving the two sides’ positions increasingly incompatible.”

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