Buried But Not Out, Iran’s Ballistic Missiles Remain Potent Threat Despite Airstrikes

For six weeks, the United States and Israel pummeled Iran’s military infrastructure, with US Central Command saying it had struck over 13,000 targets and Israel reporting some 4,000 of its own. Yet even in the final days before a two-week ceasefire was announced, Tehran continued to launch ballistic missiles at Israel and other states in the region.

While the rate of launches dropped sharply as the war progressed — from roughly 80 missiles fired at Israel on the first day to around 10-20 per day over the following weeks — the sustained attacks have raised questions about the extent of the damage inflicted in both the most recent war and an initial round of fighting in June.

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Yet the effect of such attacks can be short-lived, according to Jonathan Ruhe, a fellow for American strategy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.

“Striking the entrances to underground facilities is a good way to completely, yet only temporarily, block operations at these sites,” said Ruhe, who noted that Iran is already recovering from the damage.

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Ruhe noted that another challenge in striking missile sites stems from Iran’s size and terrain.

“Iran is a large and mountainous country, with lots of missiles that can be fired from lots of places,” he said, adding that the US-Israel campaign largely focused on targets in western and southern Iran. “Many Iranian missiles can still reach the Gulf from deeper inside the country, where Israel and the United States didn’t operate as extensively.”

With Iran’s missile program down but not out, it remains a distinct possibility that the latest engagement was not the last and that Israel, and perhaps the US, will need to reprise the military campaign to pare back Iran’s capabilities.

And there’s no guarantee a future operation would see any more success, given Iran’s demonstrated ability to adapt under pressure, refining its tactics in real time to blunt Israeli and US efforts.

“Iran adapts during war to complicate US-Israeli targeting,” Ruhe said. “For instance, it dispersed its launchers and switched up its firing tactics during the 12-day war in response to Israel’s successes in targeting launchers.”

 Read the full article in the Times of Israel.