Originally published in POLITICO.
Cautious Gaza Ceasefire Optimism Grows
Optimism that Israel and Hamas may soon agree to a two-month ceasefire deal is blooming in Washington ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Monday visit to the White House.
Analysts and some former officials say that conditions for a deal to temporarily halt fighting in the enclave have improved in the wake of U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Veteran Middle East peace negotiator Aaron David Miller told your host that Israel’s military successes in its recent operations against Iran could give Netanyahu the requisite “political cover” to agree to another short-term ceasefire that allows for the release of some of the remaining Israeli hostages in Hamas captivity.
Miller, as well as the Jewish Institute of National Security of America’s Michael Makovsky and John Hannah, believe that the goodwill between President Donald Trump and Netanyahu may also help the prime minister outflank far-right coalition partners Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who have blocked past efforts to secure even partial ceasefires.
All the while, Israeli society is growing weary after nearly two years of war, adding to the political pressure. “There’s a fatigue in the country. I think the Iran operation was a high. They want to use this to move on,” Makovsky said. “And the country needs some relief. So I think Bibi certainly understands all that.”
Militant group Hamas still hasn’t rejected the “final proposal” that the U.S. sent earlier this week via regional mediators Egypt and Qatar.
To be sure, the ceasefire deal will likely not be announced before Monday. The expectation is that a deal to defuse Israel’s military operations in southern Syria — if anything — would be unveiled as part of Netanyahu’s visit. The meeting will also likely be dominated by discussion around the future of Iran’s nuclear program.
The Middle East Institute’s Brian Katulis also cautioned that “there are just so many more factors that could hold back and scuttle an opening here.”
Ben-Gvir and Smotrich are still boxing Netanyahu into a corner with inflammatory statements about the full annexation of “Judea and Samaria.” Meanwhile, Katulis argues that Hamas, while diminished, remains a key power in the enclave and hopes that the militant group can be uprooted from the territory are unrealistic.
“That infrastructure still exists. It’s a social-political network that has its grip in that society,” explained Katulis. “Any time you lop off the head of these terrorist groups, they have the ability to regenerate and also use their connectivity inside the society. So it’s a factor that you can’t just wish away.”