Former Trump Officials Confident President-Elect Will Pursue Muscular Policy Against Iran

Elliott Abrams, the first Trump administration’s special representative for Iran, and Gabriel Noronha, who previously worked on the Iran file at the State Department, predicted on Friday that President-elect Donald Trump will usher in a more muscular policy toward Iran when he takes office in January.

Abrams, speaking alongside Noronha on a Jewish Institute for National Security of America webinar, said that — though Trump has called for a prompt end to Israel’s wars against Hamas and Hezbollah — he expects Trump will place less pressure on Israel to curtail its operations in Lebanon and Gaza and will remove any delays on arms shipments.

Abrams suggested that Iran may delay its plans to retaliate against Israel following Israel’s bombing attacks last month, because Israel would “feel less constrained by what the Biden administration wants” in its own response to such an attack and could retaliate more forcefully than it did last month.

Noronha said the Trump administration may itself retaliate against Iran for its repeated attempts to assassinate the former president and former members of his administration.

“I’ll hazard a guess and say that President Trump won’t permit that status quo that we’ve had the last four years to last much longer … once he takes office,” Noronha said.

Abrams said that Trump would also likely approve more forceful military retaliation against Iran if its proxies’ attacks against U.S. forces in the Middle East continue.

“You will see, I think, in the Trump administration, a much tougher attitude toward the Iranians and the view that, actually, stability and the avoidance of confrontation is not the highest goal,” Abrams said.

Noronha said that Trump would likely not try to stop Israel if it decided to pursue strikes against Iran’s nuclear program.

“I think he would be more than happy to see Israel take action at some point,” Noronha said. “A diplomatic solution might be his preference, but he will not ask Israel to wait until it is too late. I think his preference would be for appropriate early action” if necessary.

Abrams said that the Trump administration is likely to return to a maximum-pressure sanctions policy against Iran. He predicted that such an announcement would deter around half of the oil trade out of Iran, with further results coming by targeting various individuals and companies involved in facilitating the trade, especially to China.

Noronha predicted that European partners might be more willing to join those sanctions — which the U.S. attempted to enforce unilaterally during the first Trump administration — during Trump’s second term.

Abrams said the Trump administration will likely promptly pursue discussions with European partners about invoking snapback sanctions on Iran under the 2016 nuclear deal.

Noronha added that said the Trump administration is likely to push partners in the region to isolate Iran diplomatically, rather than encouraging renewed ties. He said that Trump would also have a “very strong aversion” to any governments that are supporting Hamas or other Iranian terrorist groups.

Addressing the long-sought mega-deal to normalize relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Abrams was skeptical that there would be sufficient support in Congress for a full defense treaty between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. He said it would also be difficult to achieve Saudi Arabia’s stated demands of Israel regarding progress toward a two-state solution.

“[The Saudis are] really going to have to back off some,” Abrams said, noting that support for a two-state solution has declined in Israeli society since the Oct. 7 Hamas terror attacks last year. An early task for the Trump administration, he added, would be to privately press Saudi leaders on their demands relating to Palestinian statehood.

He said, however, that “the idea of lesser agreements” — which the Biden administration is reportedly pursuing in its closing months — between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia “is a sensible idea” and likely “the most the Biden administration can hope for.” He added such deals would show signs of progress toward a larger agreement.

The Saudis would likely seek Trump’s private approval for any such agreement, Abrams added.

Noronha said he believes that the Saudis see normalization as a question of “when, not if, at this point.” He noted that a normalization deal would require support from only about a dozen Democrats if all Republicans support it, and that it could be the only chance for a more positive future for the Palestinian people and rebuilding Gaza.

“I think the question for Senate Democrats will be, yes, we understand that you don’t like President Trump, you don’t like Prime Minister Netanyahu, and you don’t like [Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman], but … are you going to be an obstacle on this, or are you going to say, ‘We cannot have this be a partisan divide of who gets the credit when there’s an opportunity for peace,’” Noronha said.

Originally published by Jewish Insider.