GEN (ret.) Joseph Votel: “Demonstrate Pain” to Iranian Leadership

JINSA Generals & Admirals Program participant and Former CENTCOM Commander GEN (ret.) Joseph Votel joined NPR’s Morning Edition to assess whether the conflict has returned to full-scale war and what “negotiating with bombs” would actually require militarily.

GEN (ret.) Votel said the U.S. has not returned to full-scale operations but warned that the conflict “is becoming a little more unstable” as exchanges grow more routine and thus more dangerous. The ceasefire, he argued, “is no longer the stabilizing mechanism it was earlier in the conflict and is not really a brake on escalation,” with direct U.S.-Iranian strikes now becoming normalized in a way that “lowers the threshold and gives the opportunity for greater escalation.” On what a serious military pressure campaign would target, he pointed to coastal missile defense sites, command and control locations, ground control stations, and IRGC Navy capabilities used for mining and interdiction in the Strait, while noting that recent Tomahawk strikes impacting relatively close to Tehran are clearly focused on “sending a very clear message” to the regime’s leadership.

On Iran’s remaining capability, GEN (ret.) Votel said he is not particularly struck by Iranian claims of retaliatory capacity, noting the U.S. has done significant damage to known targets, but added that Iran “has had years and decades to prepare” and has much of its capability protected. What has genuinely surprised him, he said, is Iran’s willingness to “horizontally escalate” — spreading the conflict across the map to Bahrain, Jordan, and Kuwait to demonstrate to U.S. partners that there are real costs for supporting American operations. On whether “negotiating with bombs” can ultimately work, he was candid: “We will have to demonstrate pain to the leadership — they have to absorb what’s going on.”