One would think Iran would be happy with the new postwar reality.
After successfully using strikes on neighbors and threats against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to spook Donald Trump into halting his military campaign in April, the US president signed a memorandum of understanding that achieved none of the US-Israeli war aims, imposed a stop to Israel’s fight against Hezbollah, required no concessions on Iran’s nuclear program, and opened the door for billions of dollars of sanctions relief.
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“Iran is attacking shipping to deter anyone who wants to sail out from the Gulf and test Iran’s control,” said Jonathan Ruhe of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
Now it is essentially daring Trump to resume a war it knows he wants out of, while flexing its ability to continue controlling a chokepoint that represents a singularly lucrative source of funding that rivals the frozen assets the US has promised to release, without the baggage of significant concessions.
The strategy “reflects longstanding Iranian practice, where it tries to gauge and erode US resolve by ramping up pressure against perceived American weak points,” Ruhe said.
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Iran also sees the June 26 Israel-Lebanon-US agreement that demands the disarming of Hezbollah and allows the IDF to remain in Lebanon until the Lebanese army clears it of Hezbollah weapons, as a violation of its MOU with the US, which explicitly called for an end to the fighting in Lebanon.
“Similar to his Gaza plan, Trump got everyone to stop shooting by leaving all the tough questions for later,” said Ruhe, “which creates real tension between reaching a ceasefire and maintaining it.”
Neither the US nor Iran seem to want a return to full-fledged fighting. For Trump, it is a danger ahead of the midterms, and would be evidence that his determination to pursue diplomacy with Tehran was folly.
“Trump, and his party, would like the war’s economic costs to recede before midterms,” said Ruhe. “Iran seems less concerned, since it thinks it won the last war and now holds the better cards.”
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