Real Risk of Iranian Strikes Overwhelming U.S. Bases in Middle East says Former CENTCOM Commander in New Report
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
September 19, 2024
Washington, DC – There is a real risk that an Iranian air and missile attack could overwhelm U.S. military bases along the Arabian Gulf, according to a new report by the former commander of U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) that the Jewish Institute for National Security of America released today. This vulnerability detracts from America’s ability to deter Iranian aggression and fight them effectively in a high-intensity scenario.
JINSA Hertog Distinguished Fellow General Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie, USMC (ret.), writes in the report, U.S. Basing in the Middle East: Overcoming the Tyranny of Geography, that in a war with Iran, the United States will not be able to maintain these air bases in a full-throated conflict, because they will be rendered unusable by sustained Iranian attack. Correcting this will require a comprehensive restructuring of U.S. military regional basing strategy.
“Our basing strategy is outdated and poorly positioned to meet the central threat in the region: Iran,” said McKenzie. “By developing a flexible western basing network for America’s air assets, we will complicate Iran’s ability to target our forces and raise the cost of aggression.”
While the current basing network effectively met the challenges of past eras, they are poorly positioned for the fight that is likely to emerge, and it is incumbent upon America’s leaders to begin developing a contingency basing structure now.
“General McKenzie brings unparalleled knowledge to rethinking and updating how and where we base U.S. forces to meet America’s strategic challenge in the Mideast, especially in effectively deterring Iranian aggression,” said Michael Makovsky, President and CEO of JINSA. “I hope and expect U.S. policymakers will heed his concerns about the vulnerability of U.S. forces based in Qatar and elsewhere near Iran, and follow his recommendations to base more U.S. forces in western Saudi Arabia and possibly Israel, among other novel conclusions.”
To update U.S. regional strategy to counter the current regional threats and demonstrate a credible will and capability to fight and win if needed, the report makes the following recommendations:
- Re-examine where U.S. military assets are based in the region, both on a day-to-day basis and on a contingency basis.
- Work with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman, and Egypt to identify bases as far to the west as possible where it can deploy aircraft, maintenance capabilities, refueling capabilities, and weapons.
- Relocate land-based air defenses, based on warning and indications of war, from their current locations along the Arabian Gulf to bases further west.
- Further capitalize on Israel’s 2021 shift from the European Command’s Area of Responsibility (AOR) to CENTCOM’s AOR by examining Israel’s potential role in alternative basing structures.
- Continue to enhance air and missile defense cooperation with friendly Arab states, including working to forge an understanding of what sensor information to share and how to share it.
- Devote the necessary resources and craft messaging to deter Iran and its proxies from continuing to undertake deadly attacks across the region.
- Adopt a posture that allows the United States to rebase rapidly and frequently based on regional developments.
Being ready to rebase rapidly and frequently exercising the capability will increase the chances of peace in the region, because Iran will be watching.
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