Arsenal of Procrastination: The United States Must Expand Munitions Production, Not Merely Replenish
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On July 20, a U.S. official who spoke with The Washington Post indicated that “the U.S. is planning for a wider war” war with Iran, but “we do not have enough [munitions] to safely sustain operations, and I don’t think the White House is aware of that.” Fighting Iran has depleted U.S. munitions far faster than its factories can replenish them, let alone build up U.S. inventories to avoid another depletion in the next crisis. This problem is due to procrastination in changing how the U.S. government and defense industrial base (DIB) do business. It means the United States cannot expect to deter, fight, and win major conflicts with the arsenals it has.
Our national security cannot afford further procrastination. The Trump administration’s recent requests for greater funding to replenish these stockpiles are positive steps, but far from enough. Even before Epic Fury, these magazines already were too shallow for U.S. forces to reliably fulfill the 2026 National Defense Strategy’s mission to deter or prevail in fights with China, defend the homeland, respond to other contingencies, and maintain adequate reserves. Simply placing more orders will not expedite output or overcome deep structural constraints on our workforce, suppliers, and plant capacity. How the U.S. government commits funding is at least as important as the amounts of those funds, since manufacturers will not invest in new plants without predictable and durable demand signals. Even by themselves, those demand signals would not address the sheer fact that approving additional suppliers of key components currently takes years of testing and certification. It also takes years to train new welders, machinists, ordnance technicians, and other skilled laborers. The United States must invest in production capacity that sustains manufacturing between crises and provides surge capacity when conflicts occur. At root, this entails changes in how Congress, the Executive Branch, and the defense industry do business.