Despite parties to the JCPOA talks in Vienna expressing strong hope that a return to the deal could be secured over the weekend, Russia potentially threw a wrench in the talks by demanding guarantees to protect its cooperation with Iran against Ukraine-related sanctions. In parallel, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi traveled to Tehran where he claimed to reach an agreement for a three-month plan to resolve Iran’s obstruction of inspectors at suspected undeclared nuclear sites.
In a lengthy interview with Iranian media over the weekend, Russian Ambassador Mikhail Ulyanov emphasized Iran’s accomplishments throughout the negotiations, saying, “realistically speaking, Iran got more than frankly I expected, others expected.”
Negotiation progress and updated timeline:
The European Union Coordinator at the Vienna talks Enrique Mora tweeted today, “there are no longer ‘expert level talks’. Nor ‘formal meetings’. It is time, in the next few days, for political decisions to end the #ViennaTalks. The rest is noise.”
Iran’s chief negotiator Ali Bagheri-Kani is returning to Tehran tonight for a “short visit” for consultations.
Russian Ambassador Ulyanov said he is “practically sure” the deal will be approved “next week,” adding that the deal is “almost finalized.”
Ulyanov also told Iranian state media that “the broad text of the deal (with Iran) has been unofficially agreed upon, and certain issues that are of interest to the Iranian delegation are still remaining.”
On Monday, a senior Western diplomat toldThe Wall Street Journal, “if the final decisions are not taken in Washington and Tehran now, this agreement is in serious jeopardy … By delaying these decisions, a window has been opened for Moscow to wreak havoc.”
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov complicated talks by adding last-minute demands to the negotiations over the weekend, saying that Moscow wants written guarantees from the United States that sanctions on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine will not damage cooperation with Iran.
“We need a guarantee that these sanctions will not in any way touch the regime of trade-economic and investment relations which is laid down in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” Lavrov told reporters on Saturday.
Laurence Norman of The Wall Street Journalreported that, “On #Russia #IranTalks demands, I’m being told that for all the noise around Lavrov comments and Ambassador Ulyanov non comments, there has been no change in narrow nuclear related sanction guarantees demands Russia presented in last week’s non paper.”
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Sunday, “sanctions being put on place on Russia have nothing to do with the Iran nuclear deal and the prospects of getting back into that agreement … these things are totally different and are not in any way linked together.”
Iranian officials provided mixed responses to Lavrov’s comments, with some calling them unproductive and others implying that Iran, Russia, and China were all on the same page.
“Russians had put this demand on the table since two days ago. There’s an understanding that by changing its position in Vienna Talks Russia wants to secure its interests in other places. This move is not constructive for Iran Talks,” an Iranian official said.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Saeed Khatibzadeh said, “Iran’s peaceful nuclear cooperation, including with Russia & China, must not be limited & impacted by any sanctions. In this context, we understand the remarks. Russia’s approach to reaching an agreement in Vienna has been constructive to date.”
He added, “we’ve seen Mr. Lavrov’s remarks in the media & we’re waiting to hear the details through diplomatic channels.”
Russia’s ambassador to Iran told Tasnim that the Russian government plans to give to Iran an explanation of the guarantees it has requested from the United States as part of the nuclear talks.
“Two diplomats, one of them not directly involved in the talks, said China also has demanded written guarantees that its companies doing business in Iran wouldn’t be affected by U.S. sanctions”
Even as Bagheri-Kani returns to Tehran for consultations, Iranian officials claim that the ball is in the United States’ court and that they await responses on several demands.
Seyed Mohamad Marandi, an adviser to Iran’s negotiating team in Vienna, said, “the nuclear negotiations aren’t over. On the one hand, Iran is waiting for clarification from Moscow about their demands from the US. On the other hand, the U.S. has not responded to a number of Iranian demands that are key for the revival & full implementation of the nuclear deal.”
The Wall Street Journalreported Monday that they key outstanding issues were the scope of sanctions relief – likely including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ (IRGC) official listing as a Foreign Terrorist Organization, which Iran has long sought to have lifted – as well as “the exact sequence of steps the U.S. and Iran would take”
Separately, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi traveled to meet with Iran’s nuclear chief Mohammad Eslami and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian over the weekend to address Iran’s ongoing obstruction of IAEA transparency measures regarding suspected undeclared nuclear sites and activities.
As a result of the visit, the IAEA agreed to a three-month plan with the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) for a series of exchanges after which Grossi “will aim to report his conclusion by the June 2022 [IAEA] Board of Governors” meeting, which begins on June 6.
“We reviewed the outstanding issues and reached the conclusion to exchange necessary documents between the Atomic Energy Organization and the IAEA by May 21 at the latest,” Eslami said. “These issues should be resolved by the day of return to the nuclear deal.”
According to Reuters, “Grossi also suggested the presentation of his conclusion would happen before ‘Re-Implementation Day’ – the day by which the bulk of U.S. sanctions-lifting and Iranian implementation of nuclear restrictions will have happened under any future agreement” – even though Iran’s IAEA obligations in this regard are separate from its agreed nuclear limits under the JCPOA.
“It is obvious that for Iran it is important to try to have the processes I wouldn’t say running in absolute synchronicity, but there is a sort of a loose relationship,” Grossi added when asked if the three-month timeframe was related to the timing of JCPOA Re-Implementation Day.
Congressional response to rumors of a potential deal thus far has been critical of Russia’s involvement as well as the potential of extensive sanctions relief for the Iranian regime, including lifting sanctions not required for the United States to return to compliance with the JCPOA.
Senator Kevin Cramer (R-ND) tweeted on Monday, “Why is the Biden Administration working with Iran, the largest state sponsor of terrorism, in their quest for a nuclear bomb?”
On Friday, Senator Cramer tweeted, “Biden is welcoming largest state sponsor of terrorism back to the world stage. They’ll be able to develop & sell their vast energy reserves. An emboldened, enriched Iran will only jeopardize our national security & Israel. Appeasement doesn’t work!”
House Representative Ritchie Torres (D-NY-15) tweeted, “Russia has been reduced to a pariah state, and rightly so. Why, then, are we negotiating with Russia as if it had never invaded Ukraine? As though the times we live in were business as usual? Cognitive dissonance.”
Senator Bill Hagerty (R-TN) tweeted over the weekend, “Biden hopes Russia’s invasion of Ukraine offers a distraction while he enters another nuclear deal that gives Iran & its terrorist proxies tens of billions in sanctions relief. I assure you I am not distracted & will do everything I can to stop this bad deal.”
Senator Dan Sullivan (R-AL) said, “The courageous struggle of Ukrainians has united the West to a degree that hasn’t been seen in a long time. President Biden is aiming a sledgehammer at that unity by resuscitating the dangerous Iran nuclear deal.”
While top Israeli officials have been attempting to mediate between Russia and Ukraine, they have consistently noted to both Russian and U.S. officials their opposition to the nuclear agreement with Iran.
“Whether or not an agreement will be signed, it will not be the end of the road for us — nor should it be for the countries of the region and the world, which must continue to act against #Iran’s aggression,” Defense Minister Benny Gantz said
“The head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, visited Tehran and decided not to give in to the Iranian demand to close the open cases under political pressure,” Prime Minister Naftali Bennett said at Sunday’s cabinet meeting. “This is an important, professional decision by the agency and Grossi, who did not give in to Iranian pressure.”
Foreign Affairs Minister Yair Lapid said, “the Iran deal that is about to be signed in Vienna is a bad and ineffective deal,” he said. “Israel is not committed to it and reserves for itself the freedom to act in any way against the Iranian nuclear program.”
“It’s not secret we have our differences on this, but it is a conversation between allies that have a common goal which is to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear threshold country,” Lapid said.