Iranian Ballistic Missile Estimates: 6/26 Update

While Iran continued to launch ballistic missile attacks against Israel from June 13-24, its fire severely fell after June 17 because Israel degraded its launch capabilities. On June 16, JINSA released an estimate of Iran’s future rate of fire that closely predicted this drop in Iranian ballistic missile launches. The analysis below provides an updated estimate of Iran’s missile launch and stockpile capacity, an explanation for its decreased number of missile launches, and an analysis of how the fighting would have likely proceeded if it continued.

According to JINSA estimates based on Iran’s attack strategy and the degradation of its launch capabilities, Iran would likely have fired an average of fewer than 20 ballistic missiles per day had the conflict continued and fewer than five missiles per day as soon as June 30. However, Iran would likely have been able to hit Israeli population centers an average of one to two times per day because of its use of advanced ballistic missiles and change in firing tactics. Based on IDF estimates, Iran’s missile stockpile diminished from 2,500 missiles pre-conflict to between 1,500-1,000 missiles, and the IDF degraded its launcher capacity from 350 to roughly 100 launchers.

Click here to read the Iranian Ballistic Missile Estimate.