Israel-Hezbollah Escalation Tracker

Lebanon has arrested no more than one percent of Hezbollah’s fighters in the year since the November 2024 ceasefire agreement with Israel. These inadequate efforts to disarm Hezbollah, as required by the deal, are jeopardizing the tenuous peace the U.S. negotiated. This is a matter of insufficient Lebanese political will, not simply ability. JINSA data indicates that the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) are able to operate forcefully against Hezbollah but only do so when confronted with sustained international pressure. For example, after French and American insistence, LAF activity against Hezbollah spiked by as much as 192 percent in October 2025, but then, once again, quickly dropped by 61 percent in November. Indeed, senior Lebanese officials have admitted they would prefer to return to a policy of “containment,” rather than “disarmament,” of Hezbollah.

When the LAF steps back, however, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) step forward. For the last 11 months, Israel has conducted an order of magnitude more operations against Hezbollah (1,152 total) than Lebanese forces (132 total). And, when LAF activity dropped in November, Israel responded with a 28 percent increase in strikes, such as the November 23 operation that killed Hezbollah military commander Ali Tabatabai.

The LAF’s continued avoidance of meaningful efforts to disarm Hezbollah jeopardizes the already fragile ceasefire, as Israel may feel compelled to intensify its own operations aimed at neutralizing the terrorist group’s capabilities, which could lead to another full-scale war.

Click here to read the Israel-Hezbollah Escalation Tracker.