Israel’s Coming Northern War: A U.S.-Israel Strategy to Defeat Hezbollah

Much of the world’s attention has focused on Gaza since Hamas’s savage invasion of Israel on October 7, 2023. But Hamas is only one part of the larger Iran-led threat that has been gathering for decades. At the center is Lebanese Hezbollah, whose rockets, drones, precision missiles, and battle-hardened fighters make it Iran’s most vital and formidable proxy, and one capable of far worse than what Hamas unleashed.

Combining these capabilities into persistent aerial barrages and the threat of a horrific ground invasion, Hezbollah’s unprovoked decision to launch a war of choice on October 8 poses existential threats that drive a war of necessity for Israel. Hezbollah jeopardizes Israel’s basic sovereignty and foundational purpose as a safe Jewish homeland by creating a de facto security zone inside Israel and forcing over 60,000 civilians to evacuate the north indefinitely. Its arsenals threaten all of Israel with unprecedented physical destruction, including as a shield and enabler for Iran’s near-imminent achievement of nuclear weapons capability. And, if Iran crosses this threshold, Hezbollah’s second-strike retaliatory capability becomes a first-strike offensive force overnight. Underneath it all, the events and aftermath of October 7 make painfully clear how Israel’s military and technological power cannot reliably deter Iran’s lesser proxies, let alone Hezbollah at the very heart of its expanding “ring of fire.”

A northern war, involving Israeli ground forces, is therefore almost inevitable. Israel would seek to remove Hezbollah forces from the border so that evacuated Israelis can return home; to severely weaken and reduce Hezbollah’s massive arsenal of missiles, rockets, and drones that threaten to rain down destruction on all of Israel; and to open the way for military action against Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Further Israeli tactical victories against Hezbollah, a Gaza ceasefire, or a U.S.-brokered deal for the Israel-Lebanon border will at best delay this reckoning—one that since October 8 is no longer a question of “if,” but “when” and “how.”

Indeed, U.S.-led attempts to thwart this looming conflict by preaching “de-escalation” only have the opposite effect, emboldening Iran and Hezbollah to act more aggressively and recklessly by leading them to believe that Israel will have to fight alone. Tellingly, Hezbollah’s strikes on Israel have only gotten larger and deadlier the longer American officials have stuck to this line. Instead of seeking vainly to avoid war at all costs, U.S. and Israeli interests are best served by neutralizing the Hezbollah threat as quickly and thoroughly as possible. To accomplish this, the United States should fully back Israel before, during, and after a northern war with unwavering diplomatic support and military assistance.

Click here to read the report.

Lead Author
Jonathan Ruhe
Director of Foreign Policy

JINSA Policy Staff
Michael Makovsky, PhD
President & CEO
John Hannah
Randi & Charles Wax Senior Fellow
Blaise Misztal
Vice President for Policy
Ari Cicurel
Assistant Director of Foreign Policy
Yoni Tobin
Policy Analyst
Nolan Judd
Executive Assistant to the President & CEO