The Poisoned Chalice: President Trump’s Opportunity with Iran
Five years ago, on January 2, 2020, at the direction of President Donald Trump, forces under my command struck and killed Iranian Major General Qasem Soleimani. We undertook this attack in Baghdad, Iraq, where Soleimani travelled to further coordinate attacks on U.S. persons and interests in Iraq and across the entire Middle East. This was the single most important event to occur in the region in the last 20 years, before the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Then-Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif affirmed the importance of this strike in a leaked oral history. In a story published in the New York Times in 2021, Zarif said, “by assassinating him (Soleimani) in Iraq, the United States delivered a major blow to Iran, more damaging than if it had wiped out an entire city in an attack.”
By building on the forceful policy of his first term President Trump can create a window of opportunity to resolve the Iran problem that has proved so vexing for many decades. He has already used military power to bring to heel Iran’s Houthi proxy. By signaling the same willingness to, if necessary, destroy its nuclear program, President Trump can now force Iran to drink from the poisoned chalice—that is, to choose regime survival over continued regional aggression.
As a military planner, I feel keenly the window of opportunity that is open before us. It will not stay open forever. Over time, the Iranians will replace their air defenses, and they will further dig in their deep tunnels and nuclear architecture. Opportunity in moments like this occur once in a generation. Today, we can strike with high probability of qualified success, and Iran’s options to retaliate against Israel are very limited.
If we are willing to take advantage of current circumstances, so auspicious for our interests, and so gloomy for theirs, Iran will drink from the chalice again. It is within our grasp – because of the credibility this administration brings to the table.