Burn Rate: Missile and Interceptor Cost Estimates During the U.S.-Israel-Iran War
JINSA research shows that the June 13-24 war was likely more expensive for Iran, particularly when measured as a share of its GDP per capita, than for the United States or Israel, suggesting prolonged conflicts would disadvantage Iran. Yet, the heavy use of interceptors along with high costs, slow restocking, and possible performance issues raise concerns for missile defense in any future conflict, whether with Iran, Russia, or China.
Iran’s missile strikes on Israel and Al Udeid Air Base cost $1.1–6.6 billion, while U.S. and Israeli air defense interceptors cost them $1.48–1.58 billion. But the difference in real costs is much starker. Air defense operations saved countless lives and prevented an estimated $15 billion in property damage, leading to U.S. and Israeli interceptors saving Israel roughly $13.4–$13.5 billion. Iran, on the other hand, lost significant missile production and launch capabilities that it will be costly to rebuild. In terms of GDP per capita, the conflict cost Iran as much as 93 times more than Israel and 371 times more than the United States.
However, after burning through a large portion of their available interceptors, the United States and Israel both also face an urgent need to replenish stockpiles and sharply increase production rates. The U.S. THAAD system accounted for almost half of all interceptions, perhaps because of Israel’s insufficient Arrow interceptor capacity. But, as a result, the United States used up about 14 percent of all its THAAD interceptors, which would take three to eight years to replenish at current production rates. Iran’s large-scale missile campaign may have revealed vulnerabilities in Israeli and U.S. air defense systems, providing lessons that could Iran or other U.S. adversaries could exploit in the future. During the periods where THAAD represented over 60 per-cent of interceptors used, Iran increased its successful hit rate by one to four percent. At the same time, the U.S. decision to use of a large number of critical air defense interceptors showed strong support for Israel and may deter Russian and Chinese aggression against U.S. partners.
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