Alchemy as Foreign Policy
The Bush Administration is pressing Israel to begin the countdown of “seven days of quiet” in order to restart Israel-Palestinian negotiations – NOT because they think there has been quiet; there hasn’t and they know it. But apparently they want to move on to doing something about Iraq, and the Gulf States tell them they can’t cooperate until the Palestinian-Israeli “peace” negotiations resume. There are at least three problems here.
The Bush Administration is pressing Israel to begin the countdown of “seven days of quiet” in order to restart Israel-Palestinian negotiations – NOT because they think there has been quiet; there hasn’t and they know it. But apparently they want to move on to doing something about Iraq, and the Gulf States tell them they can’t cooperate until the Palestinian-Israeli “peace” negotiations resume. There are at least three problems here.
1) The Gulf States are not refusing to join an anti-Saddam coalition out of pro-Palestinian sympathies. Eleven years ago they allied with the West against an Arab and Muslim leader. It was a military success for Kuwait, but a long-term regional disaster. At the urging of the US and because we didn’t do it, various Iraqi militias tried to overthrow Saddam at the end of the war, but we gave them no military support. The uprising failed. Then the West imposed an inspection regime that was to have eliminated Saddam’s arsenal and prevented him from developing WMD. It failed. And the West imposed sanctions on Iraq that succeeded only in hurting the poorest people (yes, we know it’s his fault not ours, but that doesn’t help). The people who mismanaged this mess were named Bush, Cheney and Powell (yes, we know it’s not the current Bush). It is reasonable for the Gulf States to be VERY reluctant to join us in another adventure.
2) Saddam is paying for the Palestinian war against Israel and using it to re-establish himself as the leader of the Arabs against Israel and the West. Because the Gulf States don’t want to be allied with us against him, they ally with him against us on this issue – it is rhetorically cheap, it suits them and Secretary Powell accepts it for now.
3) Saddam is at the moment Arafat’s only real financial supporter (Iran pays Islamic Jihad and Hamas, and the Europeans have not been paying at all because it is money down a rat hole). Yasser has no incentive to stop the violence against Israel and allow the West to turn its attention to his mentor and paymaster. Despite what Mr. Powell says, there is NO “cycle of violence.” There are attacks and responses to attacks. Arafat has only to stop the attacks and there would be no Israeli retaliation.
Even if the Israelis and Palestinians sit down now, what will they discuss? The Barak plan is off the table and there will be no Israeli offer even close to it. The Palestinians can’t take less and they won’t get more. The likelihood of successful talks is about nil, and to talk while the Palestinians are still shooting simply rewards violence.
Reassembling the Gulf coalition is pointless unless we have a military plan to finish the war we started 11 years ago – and it doesn’t appear that we have one.
From the American point of view, returning to negotiations or reassembling the coalition are only useful if there are strategic goals to be achieved. There is no magic in talks or alliances – alchemy won’t create effective policy or strategic thinking where there is none.