Before Annapolis
Goals for the Annapolis Conference have been scaled way, way back. According to National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, there will be no negotiations. There may be an “indication” by the parties “of their intention to start negotiations.” Israel’s Foreign Minister said the conference simply asserts that a process for the “establishment of two states for two people is now accepted by the entire world.” Conference expectations have been scaled back, but hyperbole remains.
Goals for the Annapolis Conference have been scaled way, way back. According to National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley, there will be no negotiations. There may be an “indication” by the parties “of their intention to start negotiations.” Israel’s Foreign Minister said the conference simply asserts that a process for the “establishment of two states for two people is now accepted by the entire world.” Conference expectations have been scaled back, but hyperbole remains.
On the other hand, the Arab League Secretary General made sure everyone knew that normalizing relations with Israel is NOT on the agenda. The Saudis specifically said they would not speak to or shake hands with any Israelis. [We personally would be relieved not to have to touch the representative of a country that sentenced a 19-year-old gang-rape victim to 200 lashes and six months in jail because she was out at the time of the rape with a man who was not her relative; the representative of a country that just publicly beheaded its 136th prisoner of 2007.] The Syrians are sending only a mid-level diplomat for the purpose of demanding the Golan Heights.
The conference takes place amid news reports indicating that the Israeli intelligence services believe: a) Hamas is as strong on the West Bank as it is in Gaza, carrying arms openly (Jerusalem Post); b) if the IDF stops operating in West Bank towns, the Palestinian Authority will not be able to impose order and it would take only a few months to create an infrastructure for producing Kassam rockets that would threaten Israel’s central region. (Ha’aretz). Also, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has warned Syria to stop meddling in Lebanon (Reuters), The New York Times reported that more than 40 percent of the “foreign fighters” in Iraq are Saudi, and the Japanese paper Sankei reported that North Korean experts discussed how to load chemical weapons onto Syria’s Scud C missiles when they met with Syrian officials during a secret visit earlier this month. The Saudi Foreign Minister went to Moscow to coordinate with the Russians on the Annapolis talks (Bahrain News Agency).
In fact, the only thing going America’s way in the Middle East right now is Iraq, where the UN is busy processing refugees returning to Baghdad.
At best, Annapolis will be a photo op indicating that Israelis and Arabs can sit in a room together without touching, talking or accomplishing anything – sort of like Democrats and Republicans in Congress. At worst, Annapolis will launch expectations of Israeli “confidence building measures” (concessions) that will damage to Israeli security with little or no return on the investment.
On another note: Our own confidence was revived slightly by the report in Ha’aretz that Prime Minister Olmert and President Bush will meet Nov. 28 to discuss increasing efforts to halt Iran’s nuclear program and other regional issues. Israel and the U.S. see eye-to-eye on most of the crucial regional issues, and share fundamental governing norms and societal values. To the extent that President Bush places bilateral interests above the regional cacophony, Israeli and American interests will be better served.