Concerns in Iraq

There is evidence that Saddam Hussein may be preparing for renewed aggression against the Kurdish region of Iraq, which also serves as a base for opponents of his regime. The evidence is derived in part from ominous statements coming from Baghdad and from Saddam’s enhanced confidence in his ability to challenge the U.S. and the system of post-war constraints. JINSA professional staff members met yesterday with a high-level representative of the Kurdish community, and several developments of particular importance were discussed.

There is evidence that Saddam Hussein may be preparing for renewed aggression against the Kurdish region of Iraq, which also serves as a base for opponents of his regime. The evidence is derived in part from ominous statements coming from Baghdad and from Saddam’s enhanced confidence in his ability to challenge the U.S. and the system of post-war constraints. JINSA professional staff members met yesterday with a high-level representative of the Kurdish community, and several developments of particular importance were discussed.

1) In April, Iraq successfully challenged the no-fly zones in the north and the south. There was no effective international response and no sanctions were imposed.

2) The UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) reports that Iraq is increasingly interfering with its long-term monitoring of Iraq’s weapons capabilities. UNSCOM reports that Baghdad has canceled production of what is described as a “fast acting toxin, suitable for use on the battlefield,” and possesses significant quantities of the agent.

3) The UN Security Council appears to be wearying of sanctions, with the French and the Russians leading the move to end the sanctions. The Russians are playing a particularly dangerous role.

4) Iraq has accused Kurdish authorities in the North of withholding water from Iraqi farmers in central and southern Iraq, equating the charge with an act of war. The wording of the complaint was similar to language Baghdad used to prepare for its invasion of Kuwait.

To anticipate Saddam is difficult, but he pushes where he meets the least resistance.

The United States failed to respond effectively to Saddam’s assault last summer on Iraqi Kurdistan. The current bellicosity may be Saddam’s probing of U.S. intentions, and the Administration must make it clear that any attack against Iraqi Kurds will be met with a response targeting upon Iraq’s war-making capabilities. In 1991, the U.S. made a commitment to protect the Kurdish people of Iraq. If Saddam were allowed to regain full control of Kurdistan, there is no doubt that he would seek vengeance on the population.