Crashing the Old-New World Order

In 1995, the NATO countries reached consensus on Bosnia — to take offensive action in a war not involving any NATO countries. In 2003, Belgium threw a monkey wrench into a proposal to defend Turkey, a NATO member, from aggression by Iraq. We learn two things: secular, democratic Turkey shouldn’t fool itself into thinking Europe will ever accept it; and France and Germany (using Belgium, squashed between them) are fully prepared to sink the ship that preserved the peace for more than 50 years.

In 1995, the NATO countries reached consensus on Bosnia — to take offensive action in a war not involving any NATO countries. In 2003, Belgium threw a monkey wrench into a proposal to defend Turkey, a NATO member, from aggression by Iraq. We learn two things: secular, democratic Turkey shouldn’t fool itself into thinking Europe will ever accept it; and France and Germany (using Belgium, squashed between them) are fully prepared to sink the ship that preserved the peace for more than 50 years.

No countries* benefited more from American intervention in Europe in the 20th Century than Germany (saved twice from itself), France and Belgium (saved twice from Germany). No countries should be more certain that, left undefeated, small dictators will become big dictators with commensurately greater capabilities. No countries should be more certain that appeasement of a dictator will be unrewarded and that the word of a dictator is worthless. No countries should be more certain that squabbling among allies redounds to the benefit of the enemy. No countries should be more certain that the United States seeks no colonial powers abroad.

From no countries should the United States expect greater loyalty.

France and Germany don’t really fear President Bush more than Saddam — although one might be justified in wondering. More likely, the freedom that has wafted across Europe, north to south and west to east, has made them fear for control of the continent.

History didn’t end with the fall of communism; even European history didn’t end. But with Europe returned to its historic proportions, United Germany wanted to return to its historic political proportion as well, as the hegemon of Central Europe. Believing Germany would succeed, France surrendered (again) and agreed to invest ever-greater political power in the EU — which they dominate economically, and which they believed could create a united state to face the United States.

But Slovenia isn’t Tennessee, and Latvia isn’t Montana. Independent countries may come together, and even give up elements of economic sovereignty for economic benefit, but who would believe the countries of Europe — from Portugal to Estonia — would agree to a foreign policy mandated by two countries with a history of invading their neighbors for fun and profit? Well, France and Germany did.

We suspect France is hoping the U.S. will rescue it yet again. We hope not.

If war comes, the U.S.-led “coalition of the willing” will be successful — Iraq will be disarmed and Saddam defeated. Afterward, the U.S. will have to determine how best to meet future threats to American and allied interests. Which countries constitute the “allies” will be a subject for discussion in the new world order.

* Great Britain, which always has repaid loyalty with loyalty, aside.