Deterrence and the Suicide Bomber
Terrorism cannot be totally eliminated, and that was not the objective of the Government of Israel in launching Operation Defensive Shield. Sticking to the achievable, we learned on our recent visit to Israel, two key objectives were to disrupt the terrorist network and to begin to restore Israel’s deterrent capability. In these areas, Israel was measurably successful. The suicide bomber in Rishon Letzion does not change that.
Terrorism cannot be totally eliminated, and that was not the objective of the Government of Israel in launching Operation Defensive Shield. Sticking to the achievable, we learned on our recent visit to Israel, two key objectives were to disrupt the terrorist network and to begin to restore Israel’s deterrent capability. In these areas, Israel was measurably successful. The suicide bomber in Rishon Letzion does not change that.
Visit the IDF Website (www.idf.il) to see the magnitude of the terrorist infrastructure in Nablus, Ramallah and Jenin. Accounts of relations between Arafat’s people and Hamas and Islamic Jihad; accounts of money – including Saudi money; laboratories for bomb making; suicide bomber belts; material for car bombs; illegal weapons and ammunition; and vile anti-Semitic and anti-American propaganda were found in quantities too huge to enumerate here. The physical infrastructure of death and destruction, hidden within the civilian population of these cities, has been largely (though not completely) destroyed.
Terrorists, people with blood on their hands and people waiting to get bloody, were captured. According to a senior IDF source, sometimes it is more important to capture people than anything else, because people can tell you things you didn’t know. Indeed, in part as a result of new intelligence information, Israel had been foiling terrorist attempts at the rate of more than one per day for weeks, including a HUGE car bomb planned for the Azrieli Towers in Tel Aviv. No, they didn’t get the one for Rishon, but Israeli security forces are being proactive in defense of the Israeli population.
Which leads to deterrence, the second goal.
Deterrence is to make potential aggressors believe that the cost of aggression will be unacceptably high. Israel’s political and military deterrence had been eroded by years of ignoring Palestinian violations of the Oslo and subsequent accords, and never exacting a price from Arafat for his failures. This, plus Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon, led the Palestinians to believe Israel would not fight for its security or for its survival, and emboldened Arafat to abandon whatever willingness he ever had to arrive at a negotiated settlement. The Palestinians believed they could demoralize Israel and win.
The opposite occurred. After the Passover Massacre, Israel took the offensive in the war against terrorists and their supporters. It is abundantly clear now that the Government of Israel will fight to protect its people and that the people are united behind the government and the military. The Palestinian people will now have to weigh the value of continuing to be the sea in which the terrorists hide; will have to weigh what they have to lose in future Israeli actions.
If they can and if they do, it will be the beginning of the restoration of deterrence and it may lead to some success for President Bush and Prime Minister Sharon’s determination to restructure the PA for the benefit of the Palestinian people and the future of a negotiated peace.