Gaddafi Plays for Time, What Do We Do?

Yesterday the UN Security Council agreed to a no-fly zone over Libya to prevent Gaddafi from exacting the last measure of revenge against the rebels. In a joint report, FoxNews.com and the Associated Press reported that the opposition is counting on the resolution. “‘We think Qaddafi’s forces will not advance against us. Our morale is very high now. I think we have the upper hand,’ Col. Salah Osman, a former army officer who defected to the rebel side, said. He was speaking at a checkpoint near the eastern town of Sultan.”

Yesterday the UN Security Council agreed to a no-fly zone over Libya to prevent Gaddafi from exacting the last measure of revenge against the rebels. In a joint report, FoxNews.com and the Associated Press reported that the opposition is counting on the resolution. “‘We think Qaddafi’s forces will not advance against us. Our morale is very high now. I think we have the upper hand,’ Col. Salah Osman, a former army officer who defected to the rebel side, said. He was speaking at a checkpoint near the eastern town of Sultan.”

Everybody ready? Yes – NATO air and naval bases in Italy and Spain; French and British pilots; America in the company it sought without having to lead; Arab states cheering for their Western mercenary air force. (Well, what would you call it when the Arab League votes that someone else’s troops go into battle and those troops go?) All together, now –

But wait! Gaddafi has announced a cease-fire and his readiness to talk to the opposition. Libyan Foreign Minister Koussa said the cease-fire is meant to “take the country back to safety and security for all Libyans,” and added, “The government is opening channels for true, serious dialogue with all parties.” He also said Libya plans to protect civilians, provide them with humanitarian aid and protect foreigners and their assets. He called for a “fact-finding mission.”

What a way to play the West. If Gaddafi is offering, however insincerely, to talk rather than shoot, who is going to tell him, “No talking, please; we’re going to bomb your country”?

Perhaps China, Brazil, Russia, Germany and India – the five countries that abstained from the Security Council vote – will constitute themselves as the “fact finding mission” Foreign Minister Koussa said he wanted. Representing one third of the Security Council and most of the world’s population, those countries retained the ability to talk to all sides. The French-British-American coalition (along with mega-powers Lebanon, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Portugal, Nigeria, Colombia, Gabon and South Africa) can talk only to the rebels and only as long as the rebels survive.

There is something to be said for using the United Nations to give legitimacy to international military action, but for the moment what it is escapes us. It is very difficult to get a group of countries to agree to go to war. (President Bush did it with the coalition against Saddam, but it took 17 Security Council resolutions. Afghanistan was faster because we did it ourselves and only brought allies in later.) And different events may make one or more partners change their minds. Gaddafi is clearly betting that the coalition will lose its nerve if he offers a diplomatic way out of the morass he created.

The French Foreign Ministry said it was unimpressed with the cease-fire announcement and U.S. Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice said events on the ground would dictate the implementation of the no-fly zone, but there is already confusion about events on the ground. Rebels say the government has continued to bombard the city of Misrata, but CNN reports that there is no independent confirmation of that – or, says CNN, maybe some units of Gaddafi’s army just didn’t get the word yet.

We have to wait and see.

While we wait, will we go to war?