Here Comes the Hudna
It is hard to begrudge Sderot relief from the rockets and mortars that have plagued, injured and killed its people for the past two years. And we don’t. But we are concerned that the respite they will receive under the terms of the upcoming hudna (temporary cessation of hostilities) will only provide time for Hamas to recover from its current difficulties and increase the ultimate cost to the IDF when it (inevitably) has to enter Gaza in force to remove a burgeoning Iranian proxy.
It is hard to begrudge Sderot relief from the rockets and mortars that have plagued, injured and killed its people for the past two years. And we don’t. But we are concerned that the respite they will receive under the terms of the upcoming hudna (temporary cessation of hostilities) will only provide time for Hamas to recover from its current difficulties and increase the ultimate cost to the IDF when it (inevitably) has to enter Gaza in force to remove a burgeoning Iranian proxy.
Hamas has been feeling the effects of Israeli targeting of its senior leadership and had real trouble explaining a “work accident” (a premature explosion in a Hamas bomb-making facility) that killed a four-month-old girl. Infighting between Hamas and Fatah forces in Gaza has cost more than 400 Palestinian lives. Hamas hoarding of food and fuel has become obvious to the people of Gaza as well as to the international relief agencies working there. Attempts to “crash” the Israeli border have not succeeded, and Israel killed a major Hamas bomb-maker who moonlighted as headmaster of an UNRWA school. The people are not happy and Hamas needs a “breather.”
Enter Egypt. Unable to stop the smuggling through tunnels originating in Egypt, the Egyptians have been negotiating a six-month “truce” to give Hamas respite from Israeli strikes and an easing of the blockade at the border crossings.
Will Israel get respite from rocket attacks? Perhaps, although it not hard to imagine that “rogue” Palestinians will shoot rockets and Hamas will disclaim responsibility. Remember the old Arafat line? “It wasn’t me. It was the damned terrorists trying to make me look bad.” And then the State Department will caution Israel against retaliation for fear that it would “undermine” the truce.
Will Israel at least get Gilad Shalit back? Not clear. The first reports on the truce, noting that it will begin Thursday, say only that Israel “has demanded progress in talks on the release of Gilad Shalit.” What constitutes progress? Shalit has been held for two years in absolute violation of the Geneva Convention; his release should he a minimal condition, but we don’t believe Israel will hang its hat on that demand.
So, on Thursday, the clock will begin ticking toward the six-month marker. What the parties do with the time will determine what happens right before Christmas 2008.
Hamas will certainly use its hudna to regroup, rearm and restock supplies. It will improve its perimeter defenses, continue to teach hatred to its children and continue to send terrorists-in-training to Iran. It will retain its commitment to the violent destruction of Israel. It will not accept Fatah leadership, consider a negotiated settlement with Israel or shut down the tunnels.
And Israel will take six months of quiet – punctuated with “rogue” attacks – and use it for… what?