“It is No Good When Assistance Comes to Dead People”
For months, the Polish government has been waffling and haggling over the terms of an agreement with the United States to install 10 missile interceptors in Poland. It was not a small decision. While the interceptors are positioned to pose no threat to Russian missiles (they could catch Iranian missiles), the Poles no doubt feared provoking the Bear.
Until last week.
For months, the Polish government has been waffling and haggling over the terms of an agreement with the United States to install 10 missile interceptors in Poland. It was not a small decision. While the interceptors are positioned to pose no threat to Russian missiles (they could catch Iranian missiles), the Poles no doubt feared provoking the Bear.
Until last week.
Announcing his country’s intention to sign, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said, “Poland and the Poles do not want to be in alliances in which assistance comes at some point later – it is no good when assistance comes to dead people. Poland wants to be in alliances where assistance comes in the very first hours of – knock on wood – any possible conflict.”
Ukraine, which had not been asked for anything, announced that it would give both Europe and America access to its missile warning systems (which were previously part of Russia’s early warning system until Russia annulled the deal). Last week, Ukraine’s president, Viktor Yushchenko, said the Russian lease of the Ukrainian port of Sebastopol would be scrapped if Russian vessels joined the conflict in Georgia.
Estonia and Latvia sent computer specialists to Georgia to help restore systems the Russians hacked, and gave the Georgian government space on their official government websites.
These are reminders that the formerly captive nations of Central Europe, plus breakaway parts of the old Russian/Soviet Empire, did NOT make the mistake Presidents Bush, Clinton and Bush did, assuming that Russia would accept the dissolution of the empire with equanimity. Their push for NATO and EU membership are NOT the result of American bribes or pressure; NOT the result of an American attempt to encroach on Russia’s flanks and poke the Bear; NOT, in fact born of American or NATO policy at all. They are the determination of people who know how terrible it was to live under Soviet domination NOT to do it again.
It was relatively easy for Americans to look at Czechoslovakia, Poland, Hungary, et al. and say, “Well, yes, they are poorer than the West, but it doesn’t seem to have been so bad for them.” Prague, Budapest and Warsaw were attractive cities – at least the parts tourists saw – and the women somehow always looked fashionable. But it was bad for them, they don’t want to go back and they will fight to stay in our club.
This has to be part of NATO’s calculation – not only whether our club wants them and the Russians don’t want us to have them, but what the countries on the outside will do. It was not helpful for Ukraine to ratchet up the threat level precisely when the West was trying to lower it, but we don’t control them – can’t control them – and they are afraid.
If Russia were other than Russia, it could be clear to Putin that clubs are altogether a bad idea. Free flow of goods, services, energy and ideas would benefit everyone. But Russia is, in fact, Russia and the former prisoners are former prisoners. NATO will have to deal both with the Bear and with its ostensible prey. Both will be difficult.