It’s Not Just Taiwan That’s Concerned by China

On Friday, December 5, 1997 JINSA met with Air Commodore (ret.) Jasjit Singh, Director of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA) in New Delhi. Singh is one of the leading analysts of Indian military and strategic thought. IDSA, a principle adviser on military policy and strategic analysis for the Indian government and armed forces, is the premier strategic studies center in India.

Threats facing India are twofold, Singh said. They are Pakistan and China.

On Friday, December 5, 1997 JINSA met with Air Commodore (ret.) Jasjit Singh, Director of the Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA) in New Delhi. Singh is one of the leading analysts of Indian military and strategic thought. IDSA, a principle adviser on military policy and strategic analysis for the Indian government and armed forces, is the premier strategic studies center in India.

Threats facing India are twofold, Singh said. They are Pakistan and China. Pakistan, he said, represents a threat to the unity and democracy of the state through its support for Islamic separatist movements in India. (India has the second largest Muslim population in the world.) China, he said, represents an existential threat because of its long-range missiles and nuclear warheads. India’s development of ballistic missiles and its undeclared nuclear weapons program are directed toward this threat. They are an “insurance policy,” Singh said.

Singh said that war would be disastrous for India’s economic development and must be avoided. Surrounded by hostile states, this policy had been difficult to achieve in the past as New Delhi went to war three times with Pakistan and twice with China in the last half century. With more to lose, he said, the stakes are much higher today.

Recently, China has loomed larger for Indian security analysts. Beijing’s focus on “sovereignty” issues and their resulting aggressive actions in the South China Sea and toward Taiwan, as well as the militaristic display at the handover of Hong Kong, have increased Indian sensitivity to China’s policies toward India. Today, Singh explained, more than 30 years after their war, Chinese maps continue to show an Indian border state as part of China, and Beijing has declared that “reunification of China is a sacred duty of the People’s Liberation Army.”

The Pakistani threat is different and includes low-level warfare. Singh said that India can exist with a hostile Pakistan but not an unstable Pakistan. Today, however, the Pakistani government appears to be collapsing and the possibility of a military takeover is high.

There are, as Singh admitted, areas of disagreement between the United States and India centering on India’s suspected development of nuclear weapons and production of ballistic missiles. In turn, however, India feels the victim of a double standard. New Delhi’s nuclear program is condemned by Washington, despite what India considers to be considerable threats posed by China and Pakistan and the fact that India does not export the products of their work. China, on the other hand, is known to export dangerous technologies and weapons to America’s enemies but is coddled by successive American administrations.

Irrespective of policy differences, the fact remains that India is emerging as a regional power of great strength and, if her growth continues, a global force. With the potential to wield enormous influence in East Asia, India can play the role of partner to the U.S. and be a force for stability in that region.

With her tremendous population and growing middle class, India is one of the most important emerging markets. For certain, America’s economic relationship with the subcontinent is already taking off. India’s economy is growing seven percent annually and total American investment in India stands at $8 billion.