Russia Beyond ABM
JINSA strongly supports the development and deployment of a ballistic missile defenses for the United States and others, and recognizes that the U.S. may have to withdraw from the ABM Treaty to make defenses possible. To that extent, we hope Undersecretary of State John Bolton’s talks in Russia about the future of the Treaty were fruitful. But those may not have been the most important talks, since the decision about withdrawal is ultimately one the U.S. can make alone.
JINSA strongly supports the development and deployment of a ballistic missile defenses for the United States and others, and recognizes that the U.S. may have to withdraw from the ABM Treaty to make defenses possible. To that extent, we hope Undersecretary of State John Bolton’s talks in Russia about the future of the Treaty were fruitful. But those may not have been the most important talks, since the decision about withdrawal is ultimately one the U.S. can make alone.
Largely ignored by the media, Mr. Bolton also focused heavily on Moscow’s support of Iran’s nuclear program and intermediate-range missile programs. The U.S. believes that Russia’s assistance to Iran’s Bushehr reactor, which is billed as a civilian energy program, could be used in developing nuclear weapons. There are two issues here – the first is that Iran continues to be on of the world’s leading sponsors of terrorism against Western (including some Russian) interests. Whatever inhibits Iranian nuclear capabilities, by definition enhances American security. But additionally, we need to know the extent of Russian willingness to accept and work with American security concerns.
In a fascinating new public document, DoD makes the following points about America’s view of Russia:
Our strategy with Russia (is) to make a new friend, rather than sustain a treaty with an enemy that no longer exists…Our relationship with Russia should be based on openness, mutual confidence and real opportunities for cooperation. We want Russia to be a partner and an ally…The U.S. desires a normal relationship with Russia, not a Cold War relationship.
The U.S. doesn’t structure forces against its friends.
Normal relationships…are not based on treaties that control behavior
Normal relationships…are not based on threats
The U.S. does not maintain missile strengths based on the military capabilities of its friends, such as the UK, France, Germany or Japan.
Maintaining missile balance or parity with Russia is no longer necessary because Russia is no longer a threat.
Talk about nails in the coffin of the Cold War! This eliminates the theoretical underpinnings of the ABM Treaty, even as its practical value has been eliminated. But Russia has to be a serious participant in ending the Cold War. The United States has revamped its view of and intentions toward Russia, now Moscow has to revamp its policy of poking a stick in America’s eye on the subject of nuclear and missile proliferation, and other areas of concern.
According to Middle East News Line (MENL), administration concerns have been somewhat allayed as Russia has slowed down the transfer of technology to the point where Teheran has turned to other suppliers (not an altogether good thing). Earlier this month, Iran’s Defense Ministry said the Shihab-4 program had been suspended amid domestic and foreign pressure (an altogether good thing).
If this is the beginning of cooperation on defining our mutual security interests, Mr. Bolton’s work in Moscow may have been fruitful after all.