Saudi Diplomacy as a Gift
“Arab leaders decline to snub address by Israeli president.”
The venue was a UN conference on religious tolerance, attended by heads of state and government from more than 80 countries. The norm, of course, is that when an Israeli representative speaks in such an international forum, Arab representatives leave the room. Interesting, then, that Saudi King Abdullah and half a dozen other Arab leaders remained seated, accounting for the odd headline in the paper.
“Arab leaders decline to snub address by Israeli president.”
The venue was a UN conference on religious tolerance, attended by heads of state and government from more than 80 countries. The norm, of course, is that when an Israeli representative speaks in such an international forum, Arab representatives leave the room. Interesting, then, that Saudi King Abdullah and half a dozen other Arab leaders remained seated, accounting for the odd headline in the paper.
For some time, it has been clear that what are called “moderate Arab states” recognize that the primary threat to stability in the region is neither the existence of Israel nor the absence of a Palestinian state. It is Iran. And Iran has become so great a threat that countries, including Saudi Arabia, have subsumed whatever political, religious and emotional problem they have with Jewish sovereignty under their very real fear that a nuclear-capable Iran would create instability beyond their control.
Under the table, around the corner and behind the curtains, Arab states – sometimes using the United States as an emissary, sometimes not – have approached Israel to understand Israeli thinking about Iran, and perhaps to hope that Israel would “solve” the Iranian problem for everyone. That would be wishful thinking, but not completely far-fetched.
For the King and other Arab leaders publicly to acknowledge Israel’s President and Prime Minister was a gift, to be appreciated and handled delicately.
It was, in fact, the second Saudi gift to the West in two weeks. At the OPEC meeting, the Oil Minister refused entreaties by Iran and Venezuela to cut production and shore up the price. Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest producer and one of the few countries that can absorb a decrease in price without a budget crisis. Iran and Venezuela – and increasingly, Russia – have mortgaged their economic and foreign policy to $100/bbl. oil.
It will be tempting for some to believe the Saudis are working to advance the Palestinian-Israeli “peace process.” They are not. To the extent that the Saudis even think about a Palestinian state, it makes them cringe, as the Palestinians, like the Syrians, are increasingly an Iranian proxy force. The Saudis are instead quite reasonably trying to prevent the subversion of the Sunni Arab world by Shiite Persian Iran and trying to protect their own interests and the long-term stability of the Gulf. They believe Israel shares at least some of those goals, and it does.
A wise American administration – outgoing or incoming – would encourage the Saudis and the Israelis to focus on a regional security architecture in which the need to prevent the emergence of a nuclear-capable Iran is paramount. This would amount to the Arab-Israeli diplomatic breakthrough that could ultimately lead to other diplomatic agreements including, possibly, a secure modus vivendi with the Palestinians – but none would be as important as cooperation to foil Iranian plans.
To waste this moment would be to waste a diplomatic gift.