“Stripping” Allies

Everyone has priorities; Bashar Assad received his from his father. First, keep the regime in power; second, maintain control of Lebanon; third, get the Golan Heights back. Close ties between Syria and Iran are essential to the first two priorities and those are working really, really well for Junior right now.

Everyone has priorities; Bashar Assad received his from his father. First, keep the regime in power; second, maintain control of Lebanon; third, get the Golan Heights back. Close ties between Syria and Iran are essential to the first two priorities and those are working really, really well for Junior right now.

Syria gets money, weapons and political cover from Iran in a complicated arrangement that includes having Iran’s Shiite clerics accept Alawites (Assad’s minority group) as true Muslims, not the deviant splinter they are sometimes claimed by others to be. Syria’s role in Lebanon is enhanced by Iran’s support for Hezbollah and by the money and weapons that flow to Lebanon from Iran via Damascus. On the other side of the country, Syria harbors terrorist forces that train and enter Iraq with impunity, helping Iran in its quest for hegemony there.

United States policy has been to figure out how to “strip” Syria away from Persian Iran and restore it to the Arab world. Our goal is to reduce Iran’s influence in Lebanon and Iraq, and dampen support for Palestinian and other terrorist groups emanating from Syria. We have cajoled, threatened and offered to bribe. The United States and Israel (and Saudi Arabia) were of one mind over Israel’s raid on the Syrian/North Korean reactor last summer.

Syria not only refuses to be stripped, however, but sees itself on the winning side. In Lebanon, Hezbollah has learned from Hamas and has declined to take over the country. It doesn’t want to be responsible for jobs and municipal services, preferring to leave that mess to Siniora. It has instead appropriated veto power over government, allowing it to remain an armed state-within-a state. Score one for the bad guys.

Second and very worrisome, Syria is busily engaged in “ally stripping” of its own – seeking to separate Israel from the United States and apparently finding willing listeners in Israel.

Syria claims it is willing to make “peace” with Israel in exchange for the Golan Heights. But if the Golan is only Syria’s third priority (and it is), why now? The only way to make life better for Syria would be to engage the United States as a “partner” in “peace talks.” If we engage them, we won’t threaten them. If we don’t engage, Israel will have to decide whether to pursue a separate peace with Syria or stick with the United States in worrying about the larger Syria-Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas axis and American security interests in Iraq. Ally stripping.

This morning’s headlines make the point. Ha’aretz – “Analysts: Syria-Israel Peace Deal Requires Shift in U.S. Policy.” State Department brief – “Rice on Syria-Israel Talks: Peace Must Include End to Support for Terror.” AP – “U.S. Cool on Israel-Syria.” To be sure, there is also “Israel Sets Demands in New Syrian Peace Track: Break with Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas,” on the Reuters/Washington Post story.

Which is more likely – that Syria will give up a successful and remunerative relationship with terrorism and Iran, or that the government of Israel will ask the United States to “help” Israel and Syria find “peace,” sucking us into a “process” that does not serve the long term, broader interests of the United States, Israel or the region?