Which Way will Egypt Go? Part I

It is our view that Israel withdrew from Gaza NOT in hopes of energizing some mythical “peace process,” but precisely because there could be no peace, and indeed no process of any sort with any existing Palestinian leadership. The descent into chaos in Gaza was predictable and predicted. The torching of empty synagogue buildings is emblematic. What was sacred about the space was gone, but the very idea that these had been places in which Jews studied and prayed drove Palestinian looters to frenzy.

It is our view that Israel withdrew from Gaza NOT in hopes of energizing some mythical “peace process,” but precisely because there could be no peace, and indeed no process of any sort with any existing Palestinian leadership. The descent into chaos in Gaza was predictable and predicted. The torching of empty synagogue buildings is emblematic. What was sacred about the space was gone, but the very idea that these had been places in which Jews studied and prayed drove Palestinian looters to frenzy. Greenhouses, purchased by private donors as a gift to provide employment for Palestinians, were looted by people for whom tomorrow is an alien concept.

With no hope of Palestinian security control of Palestinian territory, eyes turn to Egypt on the southern border – the Philadelphi Corridor – where tunnels 10-20 meters under the surface and wide enough to drive electric handcarts through have been used to smuggle arms and ammunition to Palestinian gangs. What will Egypt do?

There are two schools of thought, both most reasonable.

Such serious security thinkers as Yuval Steinitz, Chairman of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, espouse the first scenario which is described here. Egypt and the Palestinians will make common military cause against Israel and the killing of a Palestinian by Egyptian security forces in Rafah was a diversion to create confusion to allow smuggling to increase. Under this scenario, the Egyptians will return to their pre-1967 line in northern Gaza and be 6 miles from Israel’s port and major energy center in Ashkelon.

This squares with longstanding JINSA concerns about Egyptian military intentions. In 2001, we wrote: “The U.S. has transformed the Egyptian military from a Russian-style force to a modern American-equipped one with F-16D jet fighters, M1A1 tanks with depleted uranium rounds, frigates, air-defense radars, and plans for the Multiple Launch Rocket System. [Will we add] “Harpoon Block II surface-to-surface missiles and patrol boats?” (JINSA Reports #225-227) In 2002, there was Egyptian help for the Karine-A weapons ship (#234) and collaboration with North Korea on ballistic missiles. (#237) In 2004, it was Egyptian-Libyan collaboration on long-range missiles and nuclear technology, and the links of both to Pakistan and North Korea. (#401) Most recently, proposed French sales of sea-to-sea and sea-land missiles, plus American JDAMS that would upgrade the capabilities of Egypt’s existing arsenal of bombs. (#502)

None of these do you need for peacekeeping or border security between Egypt and Gaza; all are what you want if you plan to attack another country.

And, while Egypt is amassing its arsenal, it is beset by domestic problems emanating from the dictatorial rule of Hosni Mubarak. We hope Egypt’s government changes through evolution rather than revolution, and so argue for changing American military aid into economic assistance.

It is Egypt’s own fear of revolution, in fact, that may make it Israel’s ally on Gaza rather than its adversary. That’s the scenario to be discussed tomorrow.