Which Way Will Egypt Go? Part II

Yesterday’s theory was that Egypt and the Palestinians could combine militarily to allow Egypt to threaten Israel in a way it has not since 1967. The military capability Egypt has amassed, plus the ghoulish joy in killing and dying evidenced by segments of the Palestinian population, makes this a serious concern.

Yesterday’s theory was that Egypt and the Palestinians could combine militarily to allow Egypt to threaten Israel in a way it has not since 1967. The military capability Egypt has amassed, plus the ghoulish joy in killing and dying evidenced by segments of the Palestinian population, makes this a serious concern.

But Egypt has another concern – internal stability and evolutionary regime change – shared by the U.S. and Israel, but inimical to Palestinian radicals. Mubarak’s personal goal, like that of every despot, is to remain in power until he dies, and his greatest fear is violent overthrow and the revenge of the masses. The Senior Assad model is much preferred to the Ceausescu model. The best-organized opposition to Mubarak’s secular, nationalist and dictatorial reign is the pan-Arab, Islamic, dictatorial Muslim Brotherhood with links to other radical organizations, including al-Qaeda and Islamic Jihad.

So, while it is true that Egypt actively abetted or at least turned a blind eye to the smuggling of arms, ammunition and spare parts into Gaza by radicals of every stripe, that was when Mubarak thought Israel would be the target. Now there is an increasing concern that Egypt will be the target, and Mubarak has to worry about Gaza as a center of pan-Islamic terrorism with Cairo as its target. An influx of radical Palestinians and their allies into Egypt would result in a strengthening of the Brotherhood that Mubarak has worked so hard and so brutally to suppress.

Early indications are that the Palestinians will not cooperate with Egypt any more than they did with Israel to control extremism. The first days of Palestinian/Egyptian “cooperation” on the border resulted in thousands of Palestinians flooding into Egyptian territory and waves of arms flooding the other way. The Egyptian government is furious and has declared that the border will be closed. But Abu Mazen has all but given up his (limited) efforts to “co-opt” Hamas and Islamic Jihad into a “political” process and both of those organizations have declared their intention to continue operations in hopes of destroying Israel. Money and arms will have to come from somewhere – we’re betting on Iran, the granddaddy of terror-sponsors.

Winston Churchill defined appeasement as “feeding the alligator in hopes it will eat you last.” Egypt and the other Arabs have been feeding the alligator in Gaza and the chickens are coming home to roost – to mix wildly a metaphor. If the Egyptians cannot control the border, the spillover will result in more terrorism for them and an ever-more repressive response from the government.

American diplomacy must begin with the requirement that Egypt meet its security commitments on the Gaza border, bringing in soldiers or third parties as necessary (Israel has already agreed to a British presence). There should be no objection, as it suits Mubarak’s interest. Then the U.S. should help to ensure increased openings for a free press, political parties and a parliamentary election that come closer to the goal of consensual government as a way of meeting the legitimate political aspirations of Egyptians. Only the combination will meet Egypt’s need for evolutionary change.