Lebanon Could Still Be A Problem for Trump

The Biden administration removed a major geopolitical headache from President-elect Donald Trump’s to-do list in securing a permanent cease-fire deal in Lebanon. But the incoming Trump administration won’t be able to completely ignore tensions between Hezbollah and Israel as they pursue larger aims in the Middle East.

Aaron David Miller, a long-time Middle East peace negotiator who worked for previous Democratic and Republican administrations, told NatSec Daily that violations of the cease-fire are likely to occur and it will be up to all the parties involved — Lebanon, Hezbollah, Israel and Iran — to “reduce that confrontation and conflict to a situation where you’ve got periodic” breaches.

“It’s going to be a test to the degree to which each side believes that keeping this deal is more to their interests or their advantage than allowing it to fundamentally crater,” said Miller, who is now a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Blaise Misztal, vice president of policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, added that it’s unclear how the deal’s enforcement mechanisms will be used to respond to alleged breaches of the cease-fire. The U.S. now chairs the “tripartite mechanism” that is designed to triage complaints about adherence to the cease-fire, but no information has been given as to how monitoring will occur on the ground in real-time.

“You need to have this technical piece on the ground of, how are we going to identify whether there is a violation of the ceasefire? How are we going to have in place the oversight, the detection and the fusion to be able to get this information quickly to the [Lebanese Armed Forces],” said Misztal. “If this is going to work, that needs to be implemented by day 60, if not earlier.”

And other questions remain — will the Lebanese army be able to keep Hezbollah out of southern Lebanon and prevent the Iran-backed proxy group from rearming? Will there be issues with the 60-day implementation window, as the Israeli military withdraws and the Lebanese military deploys in its place? Can the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon be trusted as a stabilizing presence, given its mixed track record in stemming violence?

That said, the deal appears to be holding for now. Fighting stopped at 4 a.m. Lebanon time in accordance with the deal and both Lebanon and Israel appear to be complying with its terms.

And there is little risk that Trump will overturn the deal. Trump’s incoming national security adviser Rep. MICHAEL WALTZ (R-Fla.) hailed the cease-fire agreement, saying he is “glad to see concrete steps towards deescalation in the Middle East.”

A Trump-Vance transition official, granted anonymity to speak freely, told NatSec Daily that Trump “has been crystal clear that his support for Israel and his commitment to peace in the Middle East is steadfast.” The official argued that Trump’s win is bringing adversaries like Hezbollah back to the negotiating table.
Moreover, a senior administration official told reporters on Tuesday that Trump’s “senior national security team” was briefed about the contours of the deal and that both the Trump and Biden camps were in agreement.

“They agreed that this is good for Israel, as Prime Minister Netanyahu just said, it is good for Lebanon, as their government has said, and it is good for the national security of the United States. And most importantly, doing it now versus later will save countless lives on both sides,” said the official, who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity.

Originally published in POLITICO.