Options Narrow to End Fighting in Gaza

The ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is dead. And it’s unclear how international mediators can get both sides back to the negotiating table.

Hamas launched rockets against Tel Aviv today, the first cross-border attack from the militant group since Israeli airstrikes began earlier this week. An Israeli ground offensive that started Wednesday has seen the Israel Defense Forces take swaths of territory and establish buffer zones across the enclave.

Israel insists that Hamas is to blame for the return of war since the militant group rejected various proposals to extend the ceasefire and release more hostages. Israel is also denying claims that humanitarian aid to the enclave has been disrupted by fighting.

The Trump administration has presented a bridge proposal to extend the ceasefire, which hasn’t been accepted by Hamas. And Trump officials have little to say about what else they may do to intervene in the conflict. So far the message is targeted solely on Hamas, without any indications of pressure — even behind the scenes — on Israel. James Hewitt, a spokesperson for the National Security Council said in a statement today that “Hamas could have released hostages to extend the ceasefire but instead chose war. These terrorists bear total responsibility for this conflict and the resumption of hostilities.” (Yes, this is the exact same statement NatSec Daily got from him yesterday)

But concern about the resumption of fighting spans the ideological spectrum. John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, told NatSec Daily that Israel’s actions look more like the groundwork for an occupation of the territory, rather than the “in and out” raid strategy that informed Israel’s military operations in 2023 and 2024. And, Hannah argued, any occupation is likely to get “bogged down” in the face of resistance and potential insurgency.

“So far we’ve seen no real plan from Israel for a day-after vision, unless the day after is the IDF reoccupying Gaza indefinitely, which is a real risk,” said Hannah, who worked in both Democratic and Republican administrations and served as Vice President Dick Cheney’s national security adviser.

It’s also unlikely that Israel will face internal pressure to stop fighting, argued Trita Parsi, who is executive vice president of the noninterventionist Quincy Institute think tank in Washington. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition is stronger than ever with the return of firebrand ultranationalist Itamar Ben-Gvir to the cabinet. And barring major military setbacks and heavy casualties in Gaza, Israel can continue projecting to the United States and President Donald Trump that it’s actually succeeding in defeating Hamas even if its efforts to redevelop the enclave and delay discussions about a Palestinian state are impossible.

“You can’t have a conversation about a more durable solution to the conflict without a ceasefire. But the Israelis don’t want to go into a scenario where a two-state solution is a possibility, so they want to keep the war going,” said Parsi. “If Trump follows the lead of the Israelis, he will de facto sign up America for another endless war.”

Originally published in POLITICO.