PRESS RELEASE: JINSA Report Finds High Interception Rates, Mounting Pressure on U.S.-led Regional Air Defense
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
March 26, 2025
Contact: Blake Johnson
bjohnson@jinsa.org
JINSA Report Finds High Interception Rates but Mounting Pressure on U.S.-led Regional Air Defense
Washington, DC – Today the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA) released a new report, “The Eroding Shield: Air Defenses Against Iran,” analyzing the performance of the United States, Israel, and Arab partners’ air defenses during the current conflict with Iran. It warns that, while defenses have been able to intercept the vast majority of Iranian drones and missiles so far, they are under significant stress that threatens to degrade the system over time unless urgent action is taken.
The report finds that U.S., Israeli, and Arab forces have intercepted over 90 percent of the roughly 4,200 missiles and drones fired by Iran, a success made possible by years of coordination, pre-war U.S. force buildup, and a layered regional defense architecture. However, Iran has adapted its strategy to exploit vulnerabilities in that system.
No air defense system can intercept every threat, and Iran’s targeting of radar and communications links have eroded detection and warning networks required for effective air defense.
By dispersing its fire across nearly the entire Middle East and employing a mix of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones—each requiring different defensive responses—Iran has reduced its ability to overwhelm any single target, while forcing the coalition to stretch its defenses thin protecting a wide swathe of territory. Iran has increasingly used cluster munitions to hit Israel and directed drone attacks toward Gulf energy infrastructure and shipping, effectively shutting commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz. High interception rates alone cannot prevent the economic disruption these attacks impose.
The war has become a stockpile race. U.S. and Israeli offensive fire must exhaust Iran’s missiles and drones before U.S. and regional partner interceptor stocks run too low. The weapons Iran relies on cost a fraction of the interceptors needed to stop them and defense industrial production cannot replace expended stocks fast enough.
To address these pressure points, the report recommends the United States reposition defensive assets within and from outside the Middle East—prioritize counter-drone defense—while intesifying offensive strikes on Iran by:
- Fielding lower-cost point-defense systems,
- Clearing procurement and fielding barriers,
- Expanding airborne sensor coverage to offset damaged radar infrastructure,
- Prioritizing hunting Iranian launchers and drones,
- Increasing offensive strikes against launchers in eastern Iran,
- Devoting naval and air assets to escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and
- Formalizing regional air defense coordination
The U.S.-led coordination has created the most extensive air defense umbrella in the world over the Middle East, but this advantage is not guaranteed to last.
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