PRESS RELEASE: U.S. Blockade More Effective Than Widely Reported

The report, Turning Tides: U.S. Blockade Enforcement Exceeds Iranian Evasion, assesses claims that large numbers of ships have made it past the U.S. blockade and, based on a detailed data review, concludes the opposite. Almost three-quarters of ships that have attempted to run the blockade have been turned back by U.S. forces.

JINSA compiled and analyzed commercial shipping movements, attempted blockade breaches, vessel diversions, and other enforcement trends since the blockade’s launch on April 13. The key data findings were:

• Just 17 of 62 blockade-eligible ships that attempted to cross the blockade line as of April 30 did so without being blocked by U.S. forces;
• One quarter of these successful evasions happened on April 13, the blockade’s first day, suggesting significant improvements in enforcement since then;
• None of the vessels that crossed the blockade line were energy tankers;
• Several energy tankers moving oil on behalf of Iran were seized or redirected as part of the broader Operation Economic Fury effort; and
• Just two vessels traveled to East Asia without being stopped, though one is a vessel linked to Iran-China missile fuel precursor trade.

Significantly, JINSA’s findings contradict press reports that 25 to 35 Iranian vessels, including dozens of energy tankers, breached the blockade. The report examines in detail these assertions—which the Pentagon has refuted—and attributes them to flawed methodology, confusion over the blockade’s criteria, or the tallying of illicit vessels that U.S. forces later caught up with.

“While there has been a rush by many to brand almost every aspect of Operation Epic Fury a failure, JINSA’s quantitative analysis confirms that the U.S. naval blockade is, in fact, a success,” said JINSA Vice President for Policy Blaise Misztal.

Though not reflected in any shipping data, the report stresses that the threat of shipping firms, port managers, and refinery owners getting caught in this dragnet deters them from helping Iran.

The report notes U.S. operations are also constricting the regime’s ability to import weapons components, assembled weaponry, inputs for missile fuel, cash, and other items from its patrons in Beijing and Moscow.

“Our analysis shows the blockade accomplished in two weeks what decades of halfhearted U.S. policy measures failed to do: remove the number one state sponsor of terrorism’s main funding source,” said Yoni Tobin, JINSA senior policy analyst and report author. “The first U.S. naval blockade in decades has been a success story. This shows that the United States can capably enforce a blockade in future conflicts, should it be necessary.”