Relax, MBS Isn’t Aligning With Islamists. He Also Isn’t Normalizing With Israel Soon.

After years of viewing Saudi Arabia as a keystone in the pro-American alliance in the Middle East, many observers have raised the alarm in recent months over a worrying shift in the kingdom’s posture.

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Israel enjoyed a period of warming relations until the October 7 attacks, and the UAE enjoys far more extensive economic ties with Ankara than Saudi Arabia does.

At the same time, it’s hard to deny that the intensity of the rivalry with the UAE and the rhetoric around Israel and Jews has changed recently.

“There’s no question there’s been a shift,” said Michael Makovsky, president and CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, “though I suspect it’s more tactical and thus could shift back.”

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But an economic rivalry, feelings of betrayal, and a Saudi belief that the larger country should be the preeminent partner have strained the personal relationship.

That is not the same as a wholesale regional realignment.

In any event, a decisive shift would come with real costs for Saudi Arabia: “MBS seems to have made his bed in liberalizing his country internally, attracting more foreign investment and changing its international image, which could be undermined by a real Saudi shift,” said Makovsky.

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Saudi Defense Minister Khaled bin Salman met with Jewish leaders and regional experts last week, a meeting that was well-received.

“It reflects well on the Saudis and their interest in maintaining close ties with the pro-Israel American community,” said Makovsky, who was in a separate meeting with the minister that day. “It’s also a good sign, and suggests this shift might be tactical and temporary.”

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There are costs domestically and regionally to allying with Israel. Bashing Israel relieves pressure from puritanical Salafists in the kingdom who are furious at MBS’s liberalizing reforms, while giving countries hostile to Israel more reason to cooperate with the Saudis.

“The Trump administration has given MBS reason to believe such a shift, whether tactical or strategic, is acceptable, or at least would not invite any real costs, because of America’s chumminess with Islamist radicals in the region — Qatar, Turkey and Syria,” concurred Makovsky.

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