Saudi Visit a Chance for U.S. Gains in Middle East

Peace with Israel might not be on the table when Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman visits Washington next week, but the ultimate goal of normalization should still shape President Trump’s negotiations with Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler.

Saudi Arabia is the region’s largest economy, a key oil and natural gas producer, and a critical American partner for regional stability. Saudi-Israel normalization would be transformational for everyone. It would supercharge cooperation between two of America’s closest Middle East security partners while easing the burden on our forces. It would also pave the way for other Arab and Muslim countries to join the Abraham Accords, undermine forces opposed to the Mr. Trump’s pursuit of regional stability and prosperity, and send salutary signals of America’s unmatchable leadership.

In mid-October, Mr. Trump predicted Saudi Arabia would join the accords before the year’s end. However, the Saudis are reluctant to normalize relations with Israel absent further progress toward peace and a Palestinian state. Instead, MBS is focusing on enhancing the kingdom’s direct ties with the United States.

One goal of MBS’ visit is a more formal security partnership with the United States that enhances shared deterrence against Iran, whose nuclear and military threats were disrupted, but not ended, by the 12-day war. An agreement could foster long-term stability for MBS’ ambitious “Vision 2030” framework to transform the kingdom into a top-tier technology and infrastructure development hub.

Mr. Trump’s speech in Riyadh this spring highlighted how success on this front contributes to regional peace and America’s security. To these same ends, Saudi Arabia has shown interest in civil nuclear cooperation with the United States. It remains unclear whether Riyadh could be made amenable to something like the “gold standard” 123 Agreement we have with the United Arab Emirates, though it previously sought a deal allowing for uranium enrichment and the reprocessing of spent fuel.

There are also reports of a possible deal to sell advanced American F-35 combat aircraft and to reenvision U.S. arms sales to the kingdom more broadly. Many of these issues have been raised as part of a potential normalization package, with talks having become serious enough to influence the timing of Hamas’ brutal Oct. 7, 2023, attack, which derailed negotiations.

Resuming talks and achieving Israel-Saudi normalization is essential to the president’s vision for regional peace and should remain the lodestar for strengthening the U.S.-Saudi partnership. The upcoming summit can be successful by securing initial advancements on MBS’ wish list, but the biggest wins should be linked to the crown prince’s own interest in normalization with Israel.

The Trump administration took similar steps to convince Arab countries to join the accords in 2020. Having already extended a security guarantee to Qatar via executive order without requiring that country to join the Abraham Accords, Mr. Trump could offer Saudi Arabia the same deal.

But a more formal and durable mutual defense alliance, enshrined in a Senate-ratified treaty, should be connected directly to joining the accords. In tandem, Mr. Trump should reiterate his interest in a U.S. mutual defense treaty with Israel, America’s most powerful and reliable regional partner. This would complement and reinforce the momentum driving closer U.S.-Saudi ties by enhancing U.S.-led deterrence in the region and empowering our partners to do more.

A U.S.-Saudi defense treaty should involve serious considerations for how Riyadh, like many of our existing allies, will contribute to American global leadership and a collective defense against Beijing and Moscow. For instance, what are the expectations for Saudi Arabia regarding its traditional role as the world’s “swing producer” of crude oil, pricing energy sales in dollars or selling oil to China if the latter starts a war with Taiwan?

Likewise, Mr. Trump could commit to shepherding the complex and lengthy F-35 sales process and hammering out a civil nuclear agreement. Ultimately, receiving the benefits of U.S. cooperation on these world-class technologies must be part of a larger, long-term process in which Riyadh fully invests as an American security partner and cornerstone of a U.S.-led security architecture — of which the Abraham Accords is a core pillar.

The crown prince’s meeting with Mr. Trump is a chance to turn shared interests into tangible gains. Advancing Saudi-Israel normalization isn’t a side issue. It’s central to a wider stability strategy that serves America, Saudi Arabia and the broader Middle East.